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2008-2009
AFC EAST - PREVIEW - ODDS - PREDICTIONS
The 2008 season is loaded with changes with tons of questions of
uncertainty for each team’s philosophy in each position. For
example: Can Julius Jones fit in with Seattle’s offensive system?
Will Clinton Portis continue his stellar performance from 2007
season? Early indications are that he could and have an even bigger
role under new head coach Jim Zorn, making Portis a stronger running
back in 2008. How will rookie quarterback Matt Ryan adjust playing
with the big boys?
Each team’s personnel changes will effect the weekly lines from
Las Vegas early on in the season, and after week three we should get
a pretty good barometer on what teams will be strong and what teams
will be weak to wager on.
Let's kick things off with a look at the AFC East, the division
that the mighty New England Patriots call home. Strictly from a
betting standpoint, you'd have to toss out the Pats. The -1200 price
is simply too high for anyone in their right mind to lay. Having
said that, in order to take a shot here it would have to be with the
Jets or Bills and frankly, we don't think either one is ready to
challenge the Patriots. The gap in talent is still too wide.
Odds quoted below are
courtesy of the largest sportsbook in the world -
Sportsbook.com
New England
Patriots: Odds to win AFC East
-1200
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (9th year)
Off. Coord: Josh McDaniels; Def. Coord: Dean Pees
2007 Record: SUR 18-1, Pointspread Record 10-9, O-U 12-7
2008 Prediction 11-5
The loss in the Super Bowl was just the beginning of a downfall
as a superior organization and as a team. The Patriots salary cap
was extremely limited so they could not trade or draft good enough
backups to rest the starters who are getting up in age especially on
defense. Overall, this team still has a tremendous amount of talent
for a run at the Super Bowl.
Offensively, even though helmsmen Tom Brady had a record 50 TD
passes, the team was slowing down by the end of the season (failing
to cover the spread in 7 of its last 8), as opponents became keen to
the play-calling of young o.c. Josh McDaniels. This offensive line
leads the best pass offense ever. O'Callaghan, Britt, Yates, &
Hochstein provide depth. They used them all in '07. They also added
journeyman OT Oliver Ross. The tandem of RB Laurence Maroney and
Sammy Morris should compliment their passing attack even further now
that Maroney finally caught on to Belichick’s complex system.. Their
wide outs will be missing WR Donte’ Stallworth (to Cleveland).
Defensively, it’s aging but knowing Belichicck; he will come with
some sort of a revolving door particular for Mike Vrabel & Tedy
Bruschi. Unfortunately, their secondary took a substantial hit by
losing 3 players. They still have three strong Defensive Ends.
Consensus Reports - Get all the top rated plays of all the
major sports handicapping services in the country with the
Nations #1 Football Consensus Report.
Buffalo Bills:
Odds to win AFC East +800
Head Coach: Dick Jauron (3rd year)
Off. Coord: Turk Schonert; Def. Coord: Perry Fewell
2007 Record: SUR 7-9, Point Spread Record 9-6-1, O-U 7-9
2008 Prediction 9-7
The Buffalo Bills are an improving team in particular their
offense. Buffalo ranked 30th in total offense and 31st in total
defense in 2007, and they still managed a record of 7 and 9. To
address the problems on both sides of the ball, they had a very
fruitful draft and a couple of beneficial trades. Drafting James
Hardy appears an inspired choice, as the tall Hoosier can create the
red-zone mismatches and muscle for the third-down conversions the
Bills often lacked a year ago. Troy McKelvin’s addition was
imperative, as the Bills never quite addressed the loss of CB Nate
Clements to S.F. last season and paid for it. By acquiring DT Marcus
Stroud via trade from the Jags, Buffalo should at least be upgrading
a DL that didn’t provide a proper return for LY’s big expenditures
on DEs Aaron Schobel & Chris Kelsay.
On the Offensive Line, Peters & Dockery are a mean, mugging duo.
Center is the weak link. If Langston Walker keeps improving they
will surprise. G Jason Whittle is the only good reserve. Quarterback
Trent Edwards finally took the position away from J.P. Losman last
December due to his intelligent decision making and his flamboyancy.
The main vocal point of this offense is their ground attack
spearheaded by Marshawn Lynch. The stud RB from Cal
posted impressive numbers as a rookie, rushing for 1,115 yards (11th
in the NFL) and 7 TDs. Lynch showed patience, vision, and
determination despite facing stacked boxes every Sunday. He missed 3
games with a sprained ankle otherwise he goes for at least 1,300
yards.
With the return of injured linebacker Paul Posluszny, who missed
13 games following a broken forearm, Buffalo's defense should
improve. The Bills have solid young players on defense in Donte
Whitner, Terrence McGee and Angelo Crowell. And defensive end Aaron
Schobel remains a solid pass rusher.
New York Jets:
Odds to win AFC East +800
Head Coach: Eric Mangini (3rd year)
Off. Coord: B. Schottenheimer; Def. Coord: Bob Sutton
2007 Record: SUR 4-12, Pointspread Record 6-9-1, O-U 6-9-1
2008 Prediction 8-8
Whoever is under center will have a vastly improved Offensive
Line. The defense will be much better through offseason
acquisitions. Unfortunately for the Jets, they don’t have
a “real” quarterback to constantly lead them to
post-season play on a yearly basis. Overall, they need more marquee
players at key positions to realisticly contend
for the AFC Crown.
Faneca's signing was huge. He'll make D'Brickashaw shine. Moore
is an underrated guard. Woody is a good addition too. Depth? None.
Journeyman T Wayne Hunter is their best reserve. Thomas
Jones has probably peaked (he’ll be 30 in August) but
he’s carved out a career as a durable, slashing runner. The Jets
added two road-graders this offseason in LG Alan Faneca and RT
Damien Woody. They’ll pay off in the 4th quarter when the yards get
tougher. No other QB except maybe Rex Grossman gets as many do-overs
as Pennington. Whether it’s injury or ineffectiveness, Pennington
always keeps his job somehow.
This year, the club added some major help up front on defense and
should be much improved. DT Kris Jenkins and OLBs Calvin Pace and
Vernon Gholston (their first first-round pick) will add a new
dimension to the club's 3-4 scheme, replacing overrated talent
Dewayne Robertson and injured LB Jonathan Vilma.
Miami Dolphins:
Odds to win AFC East +1800
Head Coach: Tony Sparano (1st year)
Off. Coord: Dan Henning; Def. Coord: Paul Pasqualoni
2007 Record: SUR 1-15, Pointspread Record 5-9-2, O-U 9-7
2008 Prediction 4-12
Due to a pathetic 1 and 15 record, Miami had to revamp through
mostly the draft. They went for a team that got bigger and tougher,
using six of their nine picks this year on OLmen or DLmen, none of
them undersized for his position.
Still Miami’s Left guard is a mess and will hurt the offense.
Satele was a nice surprise last year. Carey might dazzle moving back
to his natural RT. Should have traded up for T John Greco in the
3rd. John was the 2007 MWC Offensive Player of the
Year and ranked 2nd in the nation that year with a 169.1 QB rating.
Beck is a modest 6'2/215 but will be a mature 27 when the season
starts. In his 4 seasons at BYU, Beck improved his completion rate
each season up to a 69.3% mark, just missing Steve Young's 1983
team-record 70.0% clip. Ronnie was off to a huge start last year
before tearing his ACL in week 7 vs. the Patriots. At the time of
the injury (listen closely) he was leading *all* RBs with 991 total
yards and on pace for a Faulk-like 2,200. Jeez. He was riding a
4-game 100-yard streak and catching tons of passes… and was doing it
on a winless, sorry football team.
Miami's defense will undergo another facelift this offseason,
likely going to a 3-4 look. New defenders like Jason Ferguson,
rookie Phillip Merling, Reggie Torbor and Akin Ayodele join the
club, but the team made minor moves in an attempt to improve its
awful secondary. Adding to the team's woes is 'dancing' superstar
Jason Taylor, who is at odds with the coaching staff and management
over his role with the team. His presence would mean a lot to this
club's success.
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