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THE BEST OF THE REST

11/14/08

As you know, each week we work from a list of potential plays and by process of eleimination, arrive at our key Releases for the week.  Below is the list we were working from this week, and guess what? None of them made the final cut. Vandy Auburn and Air Force came the closest to becoming Key Releaaes. We still may pull the trigger on one of those, but as of this writing, which is Friday afternoon, we will have a rare pass on the college key releases this week and may just have to sit back and bask in the glory of our rare regular season 3* NFL Key Release winner on the Jets Thursday Night.

Here's a quick look at the best of the rest.

 

Northwestern +3.5 over Michigan - Safe to say we aren't looking at a defensive battle here. These two teams have had very similar results against 2 common opponents and while strength of schedule is always going to come into play when talking the big 10 this year, give Northwestern credit for knocking off Iowa at Iowa this year. Northwestern is every bit as good as Michigan. We always point out that when a program is dominated by another and then has a chance to turn the tables, it's always worth a look. Such is the case here. We'll take the points in a game that can go either way.

 

Minnesota +14 over Wisconsin - Not sure how this years edition of Wisconsin is a two touchdown favorite over Minnesota team headed for a nice Bowl game this year. Sure, Wisky needs one more to become bowl eligible but they have Cal Poly up next week to close out the year so they'll get their 6 wins. They might get this one this week as well, but not by more than 14.

 

Maryland +3 over North Carolina - Tough to get involved with Maryland this year. You never know which team will show up. But if the good version shows up, this one goes to the wire, in which case we can't pass up the field goal at home in this crucial ACC game.

 

Navy +4 over Notre Dame - We're not big believers n Charlie Weis and this Notre Dame team. They sit at 5-4 against an incredibly  soft schedule and find themselves one game shy of becoming bowl eligible. There's no guarantee they'll get that 6th win. They have Navy this week and Syracuse next, and trust us, Syracuse is no guaranteed W for the Irish. They finish up with USC......Ouch. Navy beat Notre Dame last year in a shot out 46-44 marking the first won since the Roger Staubach days in the series for Navy. Can you imagine Navy beating them two years straight? We can and it will be worth the price of admission to watch Weis' expressions on the sidelines as the noose tightens.

 

Vanderbilt +4 over Kentucky - Vanderbilt has 3 cracks at becoming Bowl eligible. On deck are Kentucky, Tennessee and Wake Forest and we feel strongly that they can beat any or all of those teams. Vandy will be in a bowl game this year. The question is, at what point do they win #6. We'd expect a huge effort from them this week in a very winnable game. The Florida loss shouldn't derail this team. They aren't alone in getting blown out by the Gators. Kentucky has been a team that has struggled all year offensively until apparently rediscovering their offense last week by hanging a bunch of points on Georgia behind QB Cobb but we're not going to let one weeks results influence our play here. We expect this one to be close regardless of who gets the start behind center for Vandy. Getting win #6 this week not out of the question. Why wait? This is still a decent Vandy team.

 

Colorado State pk over New Mexico - We'll be honest here. We personally have no opinion on this one. It's not the type of game we would generally get involved with. But a handicapper we respect loves this game, so we'll go along for the ride.

 

Auburn +9.5 over Georgia - At one point within the last couple of years, Auburn had more wins over the previous 10 years than just about any other team in college football. Now they sit at 5 wins with just two games to go and needing one more win to get bowl consideration. If they don't get that win this week at home against Georgia they'll have to get it on the road at Alabama. We should see the best effort of the year this week from Auburn against a Georgia team that has given up 38+ points 3 straight weeks.

 

Air Force +4 over BYU - Why not? Huge game. BYU has held the upper hand in the series lately having won 4 straight and by large margins. But there's no better measuring stick in college football than to see what teams have done against common opponents and in this case there are 5 with the results very, very similar. Both teams are 5-0 against common opponents with BYU doing a slightly better job putting points on the board while Air Force doing a better job keeping those opponents out of the end zone. This is anyone's game so where we want to be is on the home dog getting +4

 

South Carolina +22.5 over Florida - Florida has blown out just about everyone but should get a bit of a test against this South Carolina defense which is among the best in the country. Spurrier and best defense? What's wrong with that picture? This is a weak call as we really want no part of going against the Gators right now, but SC worth a look.

 

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