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BUCS AT COWBOYS

OCTOBER 2008

 

As we move along here in the NFL season, teams start to develop personalities which, barring injuries or distraction, can hold tight from now thru the end of the year. That's not to say there still aren't plenty of games that are nothing more than crap shoots from a betting perspective. The majority of the games will fall into that category in our opinion. But we will at least have a few teams we can look at that are playing consistent, solid football. Why trust your money with anything less?

Up to this point we have only had 2 NFL Key Releases. Those two plays, both rated 2*, came way back in week one and were based on pre season opinions we had. We'll now start to get our feet wet a little more with the NFL. We're still only sticking our toe in the water though, so please keep that in mind. This weeks play will be a 1*. We don't anticipate many 3* plays or higher in the NFL between now and the playoffs, but you never know, so check in weekly.

Playing a large volume of games in the NFL is not our thing. Which is why we like to give credit where credit is due, with someone like the Black Cat who does a large volume in the NFL and wins year after year. If you aren't checking him out weekly, you are missing out.

1* Tampa Bay +2 over Dallas - The number on this is worth watching. As of this writing we see mostly +2 out there, with one +2.5. If several 2.5's pop up and become readily available, we'd advise buying the half point up to Tampa +3.

You have to base your selections on a teams body of work to date, not what you think is going to happen in the future, or what you think should have happened in the past. With that perspective, you would have to come to the conclusion that the wrong team is favored in this game. We make Tampa a 3 point favorite but you really don't have to know how to handicap a game, or know how to make your own line, to come to that conclusion. Just looking at both teams results to date should be enough to open your eyes.
 

The Cowboys have looked pathetic to say the least. We here the talking heads on TV every week tell us how the Cowboys are the most talented team in the league, blah. blah, blah. But it looks as though the Cowboys are starting not only to believe that, but also think all they have to do is show up to get the W. Fact is, with the number we like to focus on, the Cowboys are not even in the top half of the NFL.

We like to bring up yards per point as an indication of a teams general strength and weakness on both sides of the ball. The stat goes a little deeper than the traditional stats the NFL puts out, such as total offense and total defense which can be misleading. When we look at Tampa Bays yards per point on defense, which is over 19, that makes them the number one defense in the NFC and the 2nd best in the entire NFL behind only the Titans. They face a Cowboy offense that, while it gets alot of hype and attention, weighs in with a yards per point number of close to 15, which means there are 14 or so other teams in the NFL performing much better offensively, than the Cowboys.

Keep in mind, all the yards a given offense can gain, doesn't do them any good if they can't put the ball in the end zone. Likewise defensively. Dallas is among the worst in the entire NFL defensively, using yards per point with a 12. There are only two teams in the entire NFL with worse numbers, the Seahawks and the 49ers. So while both of these teams are performing about the same offensively, the Bucs have a HUGE edge defensively here. We're taking best against worst defensively. Oh, and turnovers.....Dallas is -6, Tampa is +3. Fundamentals folks. Warrick Dunn is questionable for the Bucs while Romo is out for the Cowboys. Throw in all the distractions with the Cowboys and this is a team in some serious trouble. We'll take a shot here with a small play on the better team to date. Tampa Bay +3 with a half point buy if available.