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Denver Broncos +1.5 vs San Diego
Chargers
September 2008
The 1-0 Denver Broncos host the 0-1 San Diego Chargers in a huge AFC
West divisional match-up that could put the Broncos in the drivers
seat within this division. A win would put them 2 games ahead of the
Chargers in the standings, as well as putting them at 2-0 vs
division opponents.
Denver will get to play 4 of their next 5 games at home, where they
have excelled over the years. Since 1983 the Broncos have gone
144-46 SU when playing at home…..that’s a winning percentage of over
75%. Although they have taken a step backwards the past couple of
years since drafting Jay Cutler in 2006, this will now be his 3rd
full season with the team and we should see him make significant
progress this year. He’s got one of the premier targets to work with
in WR Brandon Marshall, and we all saw what rookie WR Eddie Royal
accomplished against Oakland last week as he hauled in 9 passes for
146 yds and a TD. Cutler shredded what was supposed to be one of the
better pass coverage units in the NFL for 299 yds and 2 TD’s on just
16 completions. Denver, who always seems to have a great running
game regardless of who’s in the backfield, also churned out a
respectable 142 yds rushing in that game.
The Chargers lost a heartbreaker to the Carolina Panthers in their
season opener as Jake Delhomme hit TE Dante Rosario in the back of
the end zone as time expired for the game winning TD. San Diego
started out a little sluggish, managing to put just 10 pts on the
board through the first 3 Q’s to go into the final quarter down
19-10. But an 80 yd drive, culminating in a 24 yd TD toss to Antonio
Gates, got the Chargers within 2. Then a Carolina fumble deep in
Charger territory gave the Chargers good field position and, with
just 2:27 left in the game, they scored to take a 24-19 lead. But
the defense couldn’t hold it as Carolina marched 68 yds in 11 plays
for the winning score. Overall, the Panthers were able to put up
almost 400 yds of total offense on the vaunted Chargers defense,
including 142 yds on the ground. A hobbled Shawne Merriman obviously
didn’t help, and now he’s out for the season. The loss dropped the
Chargers overall ATS record to 12-3 over their last 15 games,
including last year’s playoffs. It also dropped their ATS record as
a home favorite to 14-3 since the start of the 2006 season.
As for this week’s game, the Chargers have dominated the AFC West
over the past 5 years or so, in compiling a 17-6-4 ATS, 18-9 SU
record vs division foes over the last 27 match-ups. They have swept
the Broncos the last 2 years, winning by margins of 20 and 38 last
year, and by margins of 28 and 8 the previous year. San Diego has
become a huge public favorite in the last couple of years, and
probably with good reason. They went on a 12-2 ATS win streak
starting around week 4 last year, and continuing throughout the
playoffs. Their name comes up often as Super Bowl contenders, and
they almost made it last year. The year before that they should have
beat the Pats and gone on to the AFC championship game to face the
Colts. They've got big names like LT, Gates, Merriman. Their defense
is always talked about as being one of the best. And this is likely
why we find them as a road favorite in this game.
However, San Diego has been a slow starter as of late and I
expect that trend to continue. They’ve got several key players that
are either out or not 100%, (Gates, Tomlinson, Hardwick, McNeil),
and have now lost their defensive leader Shawne Merriman for the
year. Their defense will not be quite as advertised now, as
evidenced by last week’s performance. They have never really been
that great against the pass anyway, and now Carolina puts up over
140 yds rushing against them to boot. Then, after that tough loss,
they’ve got to travel to one of the toughest venues in the NFL to
face a team that has quadruple revenge, and that appears to be
coming into it’s own. Even though everyone else seems to be on the
Chargers in this game, I don’t think this is a good spot for them at
all, and I expect the Bronco’s to win the game outright.
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