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Kansas City
Chiefs +9.5 at Carolina Panthers
10/5/08
The 1-3 Kansas City Chiefs, fresh off of a pasting of division rival
Denver that finally put them in the win column, now hit the road to
face the NFC South Division co-leader, the 3-1 Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers are 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS at home this year after a 24-9
win over division foe Atlanta last week, and a come from behind
20-17 victory over the Chicago Bears in Week 2. The Bears actually
held a 17-3 lead in that game well into the 3rd Q, but Carolina
rallied to score 17 unanswered points to take a 3 pt lead with
around 4 min. left to play in the game. The Panther defense then
came up big to stop Chicago on their final 2 possessions to seal the
win. Against Atlanta, the Panthers were up just 14-9 at halftime,
but they held Atlanta scoreless in the 2nd half to end up with the
easy win.
Carolina has averaged a modest 22 pts in their 2 home games and has
given up an average of just 13 pts. Overall the defense has been
rather stout in only giving up an average of under 300 yds per game
in total offense. They are giving up an average of around 114 yds on
the ground, but just 182 yds through the air, with Philip Rivers 217
yds being the most given up in a single game so far. They have only
given up 4 passing TD’s in their 4 games, but 3 of those came in a
single game vs the Chargers. Their success in defending the pass
comes as somewhat of a surprise considering they have only managed
to come up with 7 QB sacks and only 1 INT all year, however they
have had the luxury of facing 3 of the less daunting passing
offenses in the league in Chicago, Minnesota and Atlanta. They have
also not been able to force many turnovers this year as they only
have 3 fumble recoveries to go with the single INT.
On offense, Jake Delhomme has been efficient enough to keep them in
games but has not done anything spectacular. He had a decent game
against San Diego and a very good game against Atlanta, as he passed
for a combined 541 yds and 3 TD’s and no INT’s in those 2 games. But
he was just average against Chicago and Minnesota as he combined for
just 319 yds, 0 TD’s and 1 INT in those games. Overall, he has
completed around 60% of his passes for just 3 TD’s and 1 INT for a
very pedestrian QB rating of 86.8.
Of course he was without star WR Steve Smith for the first two
games, so there is definitely room for improvement from here on out.
The ground game wasn’t able to get anything against the Vikings, but
if you throw out that game, they’ve been able to average around 125
yds per game with the duo of RB’s Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo
Williams, who have combined for 100 carries and close to 400 yds.
Stewart has been the workhorse around the goal line and has been
able to rumble for 4 TD’s in 4 games.
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The Kansas City Chiefs have had a rough start to the season,
mainly because of issues at the QB position. Starter Brodie Croyle
was injured in the 1st game of the season against the Patriots, and
then backup Damon Huard was injured in the 1st Q of the following
game vs the Raiders, forcing the Chiefs to resort to their 3rd
stringer, QB Tyler Thigpen, who had never started an NFL game and
who had only had a total of 6 passing attempts in his 2007 rookie
year. The results were pretty disastrous as Thigpen completed just
40% of his passes for a total of just 279 yds in 2 games, with 2
TD’s but 4 INT’s, resulting in blowout losses to both Oakland and
Atlanta. What’s interesting though is that the Chiefs were actually
in that Oakland game until the end of the 4th Q when Raider RB
Michael Bush ran 32 yds for the clinching TD with under a minute
left in the game. In the 38-14 loss to Atlanta the following week,
17 of those Falcon pts were set up from Thigpen miscues as Atlanta
had one drive of 9 yds to set up a FG, another drive of just 40 yds
for a TD and an INT return for another TD. The Kansas City defense
has seemed to take the full brunt of the blame, but they are
probably not quite as bad as it seems. They did hold New England to
just 17 pts in the opener. And then last week they held the
previously high-scoring Broncos to just 19 pts. Cutler was forced to
play catch-up so the 360 yds passing looks worse that it was, but
they did intercept him twice too. With QB Huard back at the helm,
the Chiefs offense was clicking as Huard hit 21 of 28 passes for 160
yds and a TD, and RB Larry Johnson rumbled for 198 yds on just 28
carries for 2 more TD’s and a nice 7.1 yd per carry average.
I’m not saying that the Kansas City defense doesn’t have its issues.
And the Carolina defense has certainly been more stout than the
Denver defense the Chiefs faced last week. But Carolina hasn’t
really been blowing many teams out either, as they’ve had a 10 pt
loss and two wins by 3 pts or less in their 4 games this year. The
Kansas City team we saw last week, and in Week 1 vs the Patriots, is
probably a lot closer to the real Chiefs than the team we saw in
losses to the Raiders and Falcons with their 3rd string QB in there.
The Panthers seem to do a lot better on the road, and as the
underdog, than in roles as a home favorite. They are just 12-21 ATS
in their last 33 home-favorite situations. More recently, they are
4-8 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite. What’s funny is
that, looking back to 1996, in 65 games as a home favorite they have
only been favored by more than 9 pts one time. I’m not sure what is
so different about this Panther team that warrants them being 9.5 pt
favorites, but I’m sure it has more to do with the perception that
the Chiefs stink way more than they really do. Kansas City is 7-2
ATS in their last 9 roles as road underdog. They were road dogs of
greater than 9.5 pts 3 times last year and covered them all. I’d
take the 9.5 pts, but shop for 10, or even consider buying the hook
to make it 10 just for comfort’s sake. Regardless, it’s Kansas City
+9.5.
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