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KANSAS STATE AT COLORADO

10/18/08

The 4-2 Kansas States Wildcats stroll into Boulder this Saturday to take on the 3-3 Colorado Buffalos in Big 12 North Action. Colorado has lost 3 straight after falling to Kansas last Saturday, and K-State comes in off a big win at Texas A&M. One of the key factors here making the home team the play at -3, is the fact that K-State is in fact coming off that road game against the Aggies, and then hit the road once again to Boulder. A tough spot for any team, pro or college. All that traveling does not boost a team's ATS mark as history has indicated. Colorado was on the road last week, but gets the luxury of sitting back and waiting in their friendly confines as the Wildcats travel west. Game time is set for 7:00 EST so the rowdy Buff fans will have all day to lube up for a loud, crazy atmosphere that night. If you caught any of the West Virginia game earlier in the year which they won, the whole stadium was wearing black and that place can actually rock when it wants too. I see a similar crowd serving as the needed 12th man this week too, as the Buffs look for their first conference win.

Colorado is still being led by QB Cody Hawkins. Injuries to the offense line has hurt Colorado the past couple weeks against the tough competition, and Hawkins has had to throw more than he would like. K-States poor D will finally give the Colorado backs some daylight to run through and also open up the passing attack. Colorado's D has been better this year than it showed last week at Kansas allowing 363 YPG this year. Not great numbers but good enough here as long as the offense can produce some big numbers. The D did not force any turnovers last week but has forced 10 so far this year. I am sure that is a main focus in this week's practice for the D and special teams.

 

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Kansas State has been explosive on offense. Josh Freeman has led the way on the ground and through the air. He has been extremely efficient controlling the offense and orchestrating long drives for scores. The wildcats will score, no doubt, but not as much as they did against A &M.
Their defense will be the reason why getting 3 points will not be enough. K-State's defense will not create as much pressure as they are allowing over 442 YPG this year. They allowed A & M to score 30 on them last week, which is the most the Aggies have scored all year! Big glaring weakness that Colorado is planning to exploit!

Looking at strength of schedule, Saragin ranking have Colorado ranking #18 in the nation, and K-State at #114. That cupcake early schedule will take its toll when they roll into a hostile Boulder environment, playing a tough in-conference game on the road. Colorado is also 6-1 ATS as a favorite in its last home games.

Also, the Big 12 is has some parody in it. Many teams are of the same talent level, and any one team could beat another at on any given day. 0-2 vs. 2-0 in conference play does not mean one thing in the Big 12. If you can find a small edge, such as Colorado having a slight scheduling advantage, then its a good time to go after it.


To summarize the keys to why Colorado is the choice as a short home Fav.

1. Second road game in a row for K-State. May come out flat!
2. Colorado 0-2 in conference.
3. Loud, Drunk, Crazy, HOME crowd in Boulder.
4. K-State's D is terrible-442 YPG this year!
5. Colorado's D is good enough.
6. K-State has played a bunch of cupcakes-HUGE advantage for Colorado in SOS. (Strength of Schedule).

I see -3's (-115 at my book) and a couple -3.5's out there now. I see it settling right at 3 by game time unless the big hitters read this write-up and unload!

Colorado -3 over Kansas State....Colorado 35, Kansas State 27

 

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