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COLTS AT
CHARGERS
11/23/08
The San Diego Chargers have their backs against the wall again. The
last times they were in a similar position was in Week 3 at home
against the Jets, when a loss could have put them down by 3 games to
the Denver Broncos after just 3 games played in the season. San
Diego won 48-29. And again in Week 6, at home against the Pats. The
Chargers were at 2-3 and the Broncos were at 4-1, and a loss could
have put them down by 3 games in the division again. San Diego won
30-10.
So here they are again, this time at 4-6 and the Broncos at 6-4, and
a loss could put them down by 3 games. San Diego and Denver are both
2-1 in the division, and they play each other the last game of the
season. The Chargers only shot at the playoffs is to try and get to,
at worst, 1 game behind the Broncos, so they can at least have a
chance to tie for the division championship in that final game.
The first tiebreaker is head to head record and the 2nd is
divisional record. If both teams win out in their divisional games
(against Oakland and Kansas City), and the Chargers can get to just
1 game behind Denver until they meet in that final game, a Charger
win would give them the division based on the 2nd tiebreaker, a
better divisional record (5-1 vs 4-2).
Denver is heavily favored to beat Oakland this week, so this is an
absolute must win for the Chargers. If they go 3 down with just 5 to
play, it would take a monumental collapse by Denver for San Diego to
have any chance.
The Chargers have been up to the task the last two times they were
in danger of dropping 3 games back. They get this one, and the next
2, at home where they have gone 3-1. Their only home loss was that
first game of the season vs Carolina, where they lost on what could
be considered a fluke play to end the game.
They are getting the Colts at a very bad time though. Manning looks
like he is finally starting to click, and the Colts have won 3 games
in a row to get right back in the thick of the wild card race at
6-4. Last week, Manning threw for 320 yds and 2 TD’s against the
Texans. He’s got a huge arsenal of weapons at his disposal with
Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark and
also with Joseph Addai catching passes out of the backfield.. He
will be facing a Charger defense that gives up an average of 267
passing yds per game, the worst in the NFL, and has given up 17
passing TD’s with only 6 INT’s all year. He should be playing in
ideal conditions, and against a team that does not put a lot of
pressure on opposing QB’s. RB Joseph Addai has also stepped it up
recently with over 150 total all-purpose yds last week against the
Texans with both a rushing and receiving TD, and RB Dominic Rhodes
chipped in with another 74 yds rushing and receiving.
On the flip side, Charger QB Philip Rivers will be facing one of
the tougher pass defenses in the NFL. The Colt’s defense has given
up just 2 passing TD’s all year to go along with 10 INT’s, and are
giving up an average of just 189 yds per game through the air.
Rivers had a tough outing last week at Pittsburgh, completing 15 of
26 for just 159 yds, 0 TD’s and 2 big INT’s. Of course the weather
wasn’t all that great, but Roethlisberger was able to throw for over
300 yds so it wasn’t an impossible situation.
Rivers doesn’t have nearly the offensive weapons that the Colts
possess. WR Vincent Jackson and TE Antonio Gates have been his go to
guys, with a combined 77 catches for 1125 yds and 10 TD’s. WR Chris
Chambers was huge in the early going with 5 TD’s on just 19
receptions, before going down with a high ankle sprain that is still
limiting him. Malcolm Floyd did step up big in his absence with 266
yds and 3 TD’s. But in all likelihood, the Chargers chances this
week may hinge on the performance of their running game and Ladanian
Tomlinson. LT has been having an off year, but has shown glimpses of
his old self lately, with a combined 240 yds rushing, 149 yds
receiving and 2 TD’s over the past 3 games. The Colts do not defend
well against the run as they are giving up an average of 137 yds per
game, and have given up a total of 15 rushing TD’s on the year. Last
week, the Texans torched them for 177 yds and 3 TD’s on just 25
carries. The Colts may get starting Safety Bob Sanders back for this
game though, which would be a big boost to both their running and
pass defense.
The Chargers are just 1-3 in their last 4 games, and just 2-4 in
their last 6. They barely squeaked by Kansas City at home 2 weeks
ago, and would have lost if the Chiefs had been successful on a
game-ending 2-pt conversion. The Chiefs could have tied it and sent
the game to OT with the PAT, but chose to go for the win. The Colts
have won 5 of their last 7, including the last 3 in a row, and
appear to be peaking at the right time. Plus they’ve got revenge for
the Chargers knocking them out of the playoffs last year.
I just don’t think that San Diego is playing well enough lately to
be able to pull this one out against Manning and the Colts, at this
time and in this particular situation. The line opened at Chargers
–3 and was immediately bet down to –2.5. The Colts +3 would be a
great way to go, and buying the ½ pt might be the safer bet. But
with them having a good chance of winning the game SU, I will make
my wife extremely angry (she’s a HUGE Charger fan!) and I will be
fully prepared to sleep on the couch, but I will take Indianapolis
+2.5 points.
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