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MISS STATE AT GEORGIA TECH

9/20/08

2* Mississippi State +8.5 over Georgia Tech - **Note - this play was put out at +8.5. At the time there was even a +9 out there. If you want these plays the second they are released the only way to get them is to sign up for the newsletter below! - You'll certainly want to keep an eye on the number here. +10 would be very nice. But 9 should be enough. This number just seems a tad too high. We have used Georgia Tech twice this year, both as underdogs and have won both times. The first was an upset over BC and the 2nd last week when they lost by just 3 to Virginia Tech as a 7 point dog. But now Tech finds themselves in the role of favorite and a lofty one at that.

First let's look at our previous two plays involving Georgia Tech. Those plays were as much against BC and Virginia Tech as they were for Georgia Tech. We felt that both BC and Virginia Tech were down a notch or two from previous seasons and we were right. We also felt that the new Georgia Tech option attack would shorten the games and keep the scores close. Bingo again. But we can't get carried away with those wins. It's not the same BC and Hokie squads of the past and yet judging from line this week and the reaction to the opener, you'd think it was the Matt Ryan led Eagles they beat and the 11-3 Hokies of a year ago they almost upset. The game opened at Georgia Tech -7 and has been bet up to -9 at Bookmaker.com.

The Georgia Tech offense is a work in progress. We've mentioned in previous write ups that they turned the ball over like crazy in the spring and in summer scrimmages. That trend has continued so far this season. Now they face a Miss State defense that last year ranked 21st in the nation, 7th against the pass in a year that saw them improve their win total from 3 games to 8 and a Bowl game. They have 8 of 11 back on that defense this year and if last weeks 3-2 game with Auburn is any indication, they'll be every bit as good this year. New defensive coordinator, but same players and the new coordinator was on the defensive staff last year.

Miss State had a couple of lopsided losses last year but also some good showings. They beat Auburn. They beat a Kentucky team loaded with offensive weapons and they beat an Alabama team with an improved offense holding them to just 12 points, their 2nd lowest point total of the year. So this team can be competitive and can hang with the big boys.

While the Paul Johnson triple option can give teams headaches, it hasn't exactly overwhelmed the two legit teams they faced so far. Georgia Tech has scored 19 and 17 points in two 3 point games, a win and a loss. We can't imagine they are going to overwhelm and confuse a solid Miss State defense that's seen much more potent attacks than this. As mentioned above, they held one of the most potent offenses in the country to just 14 points last year in beating Kentucky 31-14. The same Kentucky team that scored 43 on LSU, 37 on Florida and 50 on Tennessee.

The passing game figures to be non existent for Tech against the Miss St defense that was 7th against the pass last year. Not that it was much of a threat to begin with but take it away completely and keying on QB Nesbitt becomes a bit easier. Also note that Georgia Tech has suffered some early season injuries including leading rusher Jonathan Dwyer who has a bruised back. Injuries, fumbles, new offense, all the makings for a close one.

We're a bit worried about the Miss State offense but certainly not as a result of last weeks showing against Auburn. Auburn has one of the top D's in the nation so really, no shame in last weeks performance. Neither BC or Virginia Tech figures to be an offensive powerhouse this year yet both still managed to score some points, in the Hokies case, enough to win and for BC, almost.

To sum up we simply don't feel that Georgia tech is a threat to put many points on the board against this defense. Likewise, if the BC and Va Tech offenses found a way to put close to 20 on the board against the Yellow Jackets then Miss State ought to be able to at least approach that number, making the +9 loom very large here in this one. This is a play on the Bulldog defense and a play against the Tech offense. 2* Miss State +8.5