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GEORGIA TECH AT VIRGINIA TECH

PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS

9/13/08

2* Georgia Tech +7 over Virginia Tech - It should come as no surprise to see us keying in on the same teams several times throughout the year. Every year we're presented with opportunities where perhaps teams just aren't getting the respect in the line that they deserve while others, are getting respect based on reputation and past history rather than what they have done this year. In this instance, we have a little of both. Virginia Tech is a very good program. They win 10 or 11 games every year and recruit well. They also field one of the best defensive units in the country year after year.

Virginia Tech suffered some major losses in offensive personnel this year. Key targets are gone. There's uncertainty at QB and it's showed through two games. They lost their opener to East Carolina and struggled last week against Furman managing just a field goal in the first half and only 68 yards through the air the entire game. Now that's cause for concern considering we are talking about Furman, who last year gave up 54 points to Citadel and 49 to Elon.

Virginia Tech was outgained by East Carolina 211-139 thru the air and 158-104 on the ground. Last week against Furman they gave up 213 passing yards while getting most of their yardage on the ground in a game which saw the first down edge go to Tech by just one, 14-13. These aren't Virginia Tech like numbers two games into the season. Now they'll have to deal with Paul Johnsons triple option in their very first conference game of the year. To be fair Virginia Tech started slow last year as well, getting blown out by LSU 48-7 but ended up winning 11 games and the ACC championship.

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But there appears to be an opening here for Georgia Tech to take a shot. This offense figures to give teams fits all year, especially early in the  year and especially a defense with lots of new faces. With both of these squads doing most of their damage on the ground, we have another situation where the game figures to be shortened with the outcome in doubt heading into the 4th quarter. Sound familiar? We used that approach last week with the BC game. As a bettor, if you can put yourself in a position to win a game, straight up, heading into the 4th quarter, while taking +7 with a dog, you'll find yourself winning more games than you lose. The trick is finding the games that figure to be close.

Concerns? Yes. Our biggest concern is Georgia Tech's turnovers. They turned the ball over like crazy in their spring game and in scrimmages and resumed the turnover plague last week against BC. Virginia Tech has made a living off of turnovers for many years. Georgia Tech needs to do a much better job of holding on to the ball. If they blow this one, you can be sure it will as a result of key turnovers.

Also note Paul Johnsons pointspread success on the road while at Navy. He was 18-8 against the number as a road dog the past 8 years there and the option attack played a big role in that success. Georgia Tech + 7

 

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