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Nebraska
Cornhuskers at Kansas St. Wildcats
2008
In a Big-12 match-up, Nebraska travels to Manhattan to take on the
Wildcats of Kansas State. Nebraska is at 6-4 overall, and tied with
the Kansas Jayhawks at 3-3 in the North Division, just a game behind
the 1st place Missouri Tigers. The Cornhuskers are bowl-eligible
already, but probably have little chance of playing in the Big-12
championship, having already lost to Missouri. Kansas State is at
4-6 overall and needs to win out to have a shot at a bowl game. They
are just 1-5 in conference play though, with a pretty tortuous
schedule. The losses have been to powerhouses Texas Tech, Oklahoma,
Kansas, and Missouri, plus a tough 13-14 road loss at Colorado. The
Wildcats can put points on the board though, as they have scored a
combined 80 points in their last 3 games, which were vs Oklahoma, @
Kansas and @ Missouri.
Nebraska has had the luxury of playing 6 of it’s games at home this
year, so this will actually be just their 4th road game, where they
have gone just 1-2 so far. They are led on offense by QB Joe Ganz,
who has completed an impressive 69% of his 332 attempts for 2830 yds,
19 TD’s and just 9 INT’s. Ganz spreads the ball around a lot, but
his main go-to guy has been Nick Swift, who has caught 54 passes for
801 yds and 8 TD’s. Behind him is another very capable receiver in
Todd Peterson who has caught 50 passes for almost 600 yds, plus 2
TD’s. A 3-headed rushing attack which includes RB’s Marion Lucky,
Roy Helu and Quentin Castille has combined for close to 1300 yds and
16 rushing TD’s. Overall, the ‘Huskers have scored 41 TD’s on
offense for the year and are averaging 33.6 pts per game.
On defense, it’s been a long time since Nebraska had a dominant
shut-down unit like they used to field year after year. In
conference games, they have given up 62 pts to Oklahoma, 35 pts to
Kansas, 52 pts to Missouri and 37 pts to Texas Tech. The only team
they have been successful in totally shutting down has been Iowa
St., which only managed 7 pts. They are ranked around the middle of
the conference, giving up 380 yds per game, including 140 ypg on the
ground and 240 yds through the air, and 38 TD’s overall. The
‘Huskers will be missing a key player on defense this week as LB
Cody Glenn has been suspended indefinitely. Glenn is 3rd on the team
in tackles with 51, and has also had 6 tackles for loss, four
quarterback hurries and four pass breakups.
Kansas State is coming off of a 41-24 loss at Missouri, but they
were able to scorch the Tigers for close to 200 yds on the ground
and around 360 yds of total offense. The Wildcats have a very
capable QB in Josh Freeman, who has completed around 60% of his
attempts for a little over 2550 yds, 15 TD’s and 8 INT’s. In a
conference chock-full of outstanding QB’s and WR’s, Wildcat WR
Brandon Banks ranks a very impressive 5th in receiving yards per
game and total receiving yards. He leads the team with 57 receptions
for 917 yds and 8 TD’s. But 5 other receivers on the team have at
least 20 receptions and 289 receiving yds, and those 5 have combined
for another 1600 yds and 9 TD’s.
QB Freeman is also a scrambler, as he leads the team in rushing
yardage with 369 yds on 90 attempts and an incredible 14 rushing
TD’s. RB’s Logan Dold and LaMark Brown have combined for almost 600
more yds and 7 more TD’s on the ground. The Wildcats overall 41
offensive TD’s are equal to the Cornhusker output.
On defense, they are giving up a boatload of yds on the ground, with
an average of around 210 per game. And they are also giving up an
average of 34 pts per game.
Both teams rank at the bottom of the conference standings in
turnover margin, with –1.1 TO’s per game on average.
Kansas State is reeling, having lost 5 of their last 6 games, and
they would like a win badly. They also are looking for a little
revenge, as Nebraska put up 73 pts on them about this time last year
in Lincoln, and have won the past 3 match-ups in this series. Prior
to that, Kansas St. had gone 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS against the
Cornhuskers. In the past 6 meetings in Manhattan, the Wildcats have
gone 4-2 SU vs Nebraska. Kansas St is 9-4 ATS their last 13 games as
a home underdog. Since 2004, Nebraska is 7-10-1 ATS and 6-12 SU in
road conference games.
We probably won’t see a whole lot of defense in this game, as both
offenses are potent and the stop units are very generous. Kansas St
has done well as a home dog in the past and they need a win more
than the Huskers, at this point. Plus they are playing with triple
revenge. I think we’re probably going to have a pretty competitive
game so I’m tempted to take the points, which are currently close to
a TD. I’ll take Kansas State here, expecting a high-scoring game of
around 38-34 or so, either way. And maybe even put a little on the
money line with the Wildcats to get the SU win. Kansas St +6 pts.
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