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#9 Clemson at #6 North Carolina


1/21/09


The North Carolina Tar Heels may have fallen to number 6 in the Top 25 and struggled in the ACC conference with two losses to Boston College and Wake Forest this season, but it is hard to count out a team with Tyler Hansbrough on the floor and Roy Williams roaming the sidelines as they have always found ways to bounce back against adversity.

The Clemson Tigers have been impressive this season as their defense has held their opponents to just 63 points a game which is a big reason for their 16-1 record and #9 ranking in the country.

Even though the Tigers are coming off their first lost of the season to the new number one team in the country in Wake Forest, a win over the boys from Chapel Hill will be huge for both their record in conference, ranking in the country and momentum going into a big game against the ACC leading Duke just a few games down the road and a rematch with Wake Forest in the last game of the season.

The Tigers may have the better defense of the two teams, but the Tar Heels are dominant in every other category including field goal percentage, 3 point percentage and rebounding which could be the difference in the game.

Clemson has never won in Chapel Hill. They enter this game trying to break a 53 game losing streak. That would explain the extra cushion in this line as most well known national power ratings have North Carolina roughly an 11 point favorite in this one. However, all well known, national power rating sites also use a standard 4 points for home court advantage when in fact the Tar Heels home court edge could be as high as 7.

Most in College Hoops feel the Tar Heels are the best team in the country despite two conference losses, one to Boston College and one to #1 Wake Forest. They have 3 or 4 first round NBA draft picks on their roster and with the exception of those two losses have blown good teams away, including Kentucky, Notre Dame and Michigan State.

Clemson had North Carolina down by 15 in last years game here, only to lose in double overtime. As a matter of fact, both games between these two last year went to overtime with the Tar Heels winning them both. Of the 22 games played at the Dean Dome Clemson has come within 10 points only 3 times.

Despite the seemingly insurmountable odds against the Tigers, we're going to give them a shot here. +14.5 points is too much to pass up in a game of this magnitude between two top 10 teams with a combined record of 32-3. You have to figure that if Boston College can knock off the Tar Heels, Clemson is certainly capable of making a game of it. They proved that last year. Clemson +14.5

ATS TRENDS 2000-2009

at North Carolina Tar Heels by 14.5 Clemson Tigers O/U 163.0 Recommend
North Carolina Tar Heels are 144-118-5 ATS All Games (All Lines) North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels are 20-10-0 ATS All Games (14 -> 16.5) North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels are 117-88-3 ATS As Favorite (All Lines) North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels are 18-8-0 ATS As Favorite (14 -> 16.5) North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels are 92-69-4 ATS As Home (All Lines) North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels are 13-6-0 ATS As Home (14 -> 16.5) North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels are 10-1-0 O/U As Home (14 -> 16.5) Over
North Carolina Tar Heels are 87-60-3 ATS As Home Favorite (All Lines) North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels are 67-50-2 O/U As Home Favorite (All Lines) Over
North Carolina Tar Heels are 13-6-0 ATS As Home Favorite (14 -> 16.5) North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels are 10-1-0 O/U As Home Favorite (14 -> 16.5) Over
North Carolina Tar Heels are 81-59-3 ATS After 2 Wins (All Lines) North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels are 13-5-0 ATS After 2 Wins (14 -> 16.5) North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels are 50-33-3 O/U After 1 ATS Loss (All Lines) Over
North Carolina Tar Heels are 17-9-0 O/U After 2 Unders (All Lines) Over
North Carolina Tar Heels are 14-5-0 ATS After 1 Home (14 -> 16.5) North Carolina Tar Heels
Clemson Tigers are 35-17-1 O/U As Dog (All Lines) Over
Clemson Tigers are 25-13-1 O/U As Away Dog (All Lines) Over
Clemson Tigers are 53-37-3 ATS After 1 ATS Loss (All Lines) Clemson Tigers
Clemson Tigers are 0-3-0 O/U After 1 ATS Loss (14 -> 16.5) Under

 

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