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OREGON AT USC
FOOTBALL ANALYSIS AND
PREDICTION
10/4/08
Oregon +16 over USC - The
high-scoring Oregon Ducks waddle on down south to the Los Angeles
Memorial Coliseum to take on rival Pac-10 hosts, the USC Trojans,
who are coming off of what has become their annual
head-scratching-loss-to-a-lesser-team game. The previously #1 ranked
Trojans were totally dominated on both sides of the ball by the
Oregon State Beavers, a team they were favored by 25 pts to beat. A
team that had lost to Pac-10 doormat Stanford by 8 pts, and who were
totally destroyed by Penn St by 31 pts.
Last year it was visiting Stanford edging USC by a point in a game
the Trojans were favored to win by around 30 pts. The year before
that is was, again, the Oregon State Beavers edging the Trojans in a
33-31 shootout at Corvallis. You’d think these highly rated teams
would have learned by now that they can’t take anyone for granted.
Especially when it has already happened 2 years in a row! But time
and time again they believe all of the hype and press and think all
they have to do is show up for an automatic win. The difference
between a #1 ranked team and a #50 ranked team can close awfully
fast when one team shows little intensity and the other team is
emotionally sky-high. Oh well, enough preaching. But maybe USC
wasn’t as good as we all thought anyway. They did annihilate
Virginia to open the season, but then Virginia was last seen getting
destroyed by ACC doormat Duke by 4 TD’s. And then the Trojans killed
Ohio St, which justified their ranking in many people’s eyes. But
since then Ohio St has missed 2 more covers with rather pedestrian
efforts against Troy and Minnesota to go 0-4 ATS on the year, so
maybe they were a little over-hyped also. This week’s game at
Wisconsin may give us a little further insight there.
Anyway, the Trojans, who have now dropped to #9 in the polls, were
held to just barely over 300 yds of offense against the Beavers, and
zero 1st half points. They scored just 21 pts overall with the last
TD coming with just a minute left in the game and Oregon State up
27-14. Their potent running game was held to under 90 yds rushing,
and their defense, which had been holding opposing offenses to just
50 yds rushing per game, was scorched for 186 yds and 2 TD’s by 5’6”
180 lb RB Jacquizz Rodgers. Beaver QB Lyle Moevao was able to hit
nearly 65% of his passes for another 167 yds and 2 TD’s with no
INT’s. In fact, the Beavers did not turn the ball over at all as
compared to 2 costly TO’s by the Trojans. Oregon State was also able
to control the clock on the Trojans with nearly a 10:00 time-of
-possession advantage. The Trojans now have to try and regroup off
of this disappointing loss and will have to not only run the table,
but hope for a miracle if they are to have any shot at the national
championship, which is really their only goal this year.
It won’t come easy this week with the high-flying Oregon Ducks
coming to town. The #23 ranked Ducks come in at 4-1 and already have
2 conference wins under their belt. Their only loss has been a 37-32
shootout vs #17 ranked Boise St. They are averaging an impressive
47.5 pts per game, having scored at least 32 pts in every game, and
have gone over 60 pts twice. The Ducks can certainly move the chains
on offense as they are averaging over 530 yds of total offense and
an amazing 27 first downs per game. The powerful running game, which
is averaging 308 yds per game, is led by the duo of RB Jeremiah
Johnson (65 rushes for 440 yds and 6 TD’s) and LeGarrette Blount (67
rushes for 482 yds and 8 TD’s) who are combining for a hefty 7 yd
per rush average. The air attack, which is averaging around 223 yds
per game, has been led by a QB-by-committee approach due to
injuries, and the fact that there was no clear-cut winner coming out
of the Spring camp. 6’6” QB Justin Roper, who was injured in the
Purdue game, could be ready for this game. If not, the Ducks still
have 2 choices in junior-college transfer Jeremiah Masoli (381 yds,
4 TD’s, 0 INT) and FR Darron Thomas (210 yds, 3 TD’s, 1 INT), who
have been very capable in running the offense. They’ve also got FR
Chris Harper, who offers a nice change of pace as a running threat.
In limited action, Harper has rushed 34 times for 138 yds and 2 TD’s,
as well as throwing for a TD. Whoever is out there will have a nice
quartet of receivers to go to though as Jaison Williams (20 rec.,
288 yds, 3 TD’s), Ed Dickson (20 rec., 266 yds, 2 TD’s), Terence
Scott (18 rec., 272, 2 TD’s) and Jeffrey Maehl (18 rec., 205, 2 TD’s)
have combined for over 1000 yds and 9 TD’s and a 12 yd per catch
average.
The Oregon Duck defense returns 8 starters from a year ago from a
team that ranked right in the middle almost, at #60 in the nation
(38th vs the rush/86 vs the pass). So far this year they have held 4
of their 5 opponents to under 95 yds rushing, and 4 of 5 opponents
to under 207 yds passing. Purdue burned them for 200 yds on the
ground in Oregon’s 32-26 OT road win there a few weeks ago. And
Boise’s potent air attack torched them for almost 400 yds passing in
that shootout, but they did hold the Broncos to a paltry 38 yds
rushing on 34 attempts, for a miniscule 1.1 yd per rush average.
USC should be able to move the ball and score points vs this Duck
team, but not sure they can out-score them by 16 pts., seeing as
Oregon is averaging close to 50 pts per game themselves.
8 of the last 10 match-ups between these 2 teams has been decided by
15 pts or less, and 7 of those were decided by 11 pts or less.
Oregon has actually won 6 of those 10 games SU, although the Trojans
have won 3 of the last 4. Oregon won last year’s meeting in Eugene
24-17 to give USC their 2nd loss of the season.
I like Oregon to hang around in this game, as on paper this should
be a much tougher opponent than last week for USC. I’ll take the
Oregon Ducks plus the 16 pts. Oregon +16
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