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Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
2009 NFL Playoffs
Note - Not a Key Release
The Arizona Cardinals advance to the 2nd round of the playoffs by
virtue of their 30-24 victory over the Atlanta Falcons last week. As
their reward, they get to travel East to take on the rested
Carolina Panthers, who had a 1st round bye. The Cards were the 4th
seed in the NFC with their 9-7 regular season record, which was good
enough to win the weak West division by 2 games. Carolina, winners
of the strong NFC South, received the 2nd seed with a 12-4 regular
season record.
The Panthers were just an eyelash away from the top seed in the NFC,
but faltered late in the Week 16 showdown at New York in a 34-28 OT
loss to the Giants…a game in which they dominated early and still
led 28-20 entering the 4th Q. They again faltered late in their
season finale at New Orleans, blowing a 30-10 4th Q lead and
allowing the Saints to take a 31-30 lead with just 3:11 remaining in
the game. But they were able to drive 57 yds on their final
possession to nail the 42 yd FG for the slim win.
Carolina’s 12-4 record was largely due to their stellar play at
home, where they were a perfect 8-0. In road games they were just
4-4. There was definitely quite a difference in their home and road
play. At home they averaged nearly 30 pts per game, while holding
the opposition to just under 14 pts, on average. Overall in their
home games, the Panthers held 5 of 8 opponents to 17 pts or less,
with 23 pts being the most allowed by any team (Arizona and Tampa
Bay). On the road they average just 22.5 per game and gave up a
little over 27 pts per game. And in their last 4 road games of the
year, they actually gave up over 35 pts per game. I guess it’s a
good thing they have this game at home.
These two teams met in Carolina back in Week 8, with the Panthers
having to fight back from 17-3 and 23-17 deficits to finally pull
out the 27-23 win by scoring the last 10 pts of the game. The
Panthers stifled the weak Arizona running game, allowing just 50 yds
total, and with 30 of those yds coming on a handoff (or wildcat
formation) to Anquan Boldin. Other than that, the Cardinals only
attempted 13 rushes, netting just 20 yds total for a measly 1.5 yd
per carry average. Kurt Warner had a lot of success though, throwing
for 381 yds and 2 TD’s on 35 of 49 passing. He was picked off once
and sacked just 2 times. The Cardinal receiving corps of Boldin,
Fitzgerald and Breaston all had huge days, combining for 25
receptions for 269 yds, with Boldin catching 2 of his 9 receptions
for TD’s. Arizona was aided by a huge defensive play in the 2nd Q as
LB Karlos Dansby hit Panther QB Jake Delhomme in the backfield,
causing him to fumble at his own 5 yd line. Warner hit Boldin on the
next play for the TD and an early 10-0 lead.
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For the Panthers, Jake Delhomme was 20 of 28 for 248 yds ,with 2
TD’s and no INT’s, and was sacked just the one time on the fumble.
RB DeAngelo Williams had 108 yds and a TD on just 17 carries, for a
6.4 YPC average, but the Cards held Jonathon Stewart in check with
just 10 yds on 8 carries. Panther WR Steve Smith had just 5 catches,
but they went for a total of 117 yds and 2 TD’s, with one of them
being a 65 yd catch and run off of a short dump pass.
Arizona had some rather meaningless games down the stretch as a
result of clinching their division title in Week 11. They went just
2-4 in their last 6 games, but, in their defense, they played some
really tough teams that had a lot at stake. But they regrouped in
the season finale against Seattle, and with the win last week
against Atlanta they have now scored 64 pts in their last 2 games.
In 10 of their 17 games this year, they have scored 29 pts or more.
But they have not been a good road team, having won just 3 of 8 away
games, and all 3 of those were against weak division foes. In fact,
6 of their 9 wins were against teams in their own division, where
Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis combined for just a 13-35
record. It’s kind of hard to get a good read on the Cardinals
because they clinched so early. If you look at just their road games
before they clinched, they were 0-3 outside of their division, with
a 7 pt loss at Washington and the 4 pt loss at Carolina, but they
got hammered by the Jets.
As for Carolina, 5 of their 12 wins were by 4 pts or less but 5 of
their 8 home wins were by 15 or more, with one more being by 9. If
you take away the gift TD in the first match-up with Arizona, the
Panthers win by 11. Based on Carolina’s perfect record at home and
Arizona’s road struggles, and the fact that the Panthers are rested,
it’s just about a given that they will win the game….or is it?
The Carolina defense is not one of the NFL’s elite by any means.
They are ranked 18th in overall defense, 20th against the run and
16th against the pass. And they are ranked 12th in points allowed.
Arizona is ranked 4th in overall offense, 32nd in rushing and 2nd in
passing, and they are the 3rd highest scoring team. Lately their
running game has started to come on a little, and their defense has
made some big plays. Overall they are 19th in defense, 16th against
the run and 22nd against the pass, but they have given up lots of
points with a ranking of 28th. Carolina has the 3rd best running
game and is 19th in passing and 7th in scoring.
Cardinal WR Anquan Boldin tweaked his hamstring in the 2nd Q last
week and had to leave the game, so he may not be 100% this week, if
he plays at all. However, I still think this spread is a few points
too high. When these teams met in Week 8, Carolina was just a 4.5 pt
home favorite and Arizona covered by the hook. Now we have the same
match-up in the playoffs and it’s all of a sudden –10!?
If you look at round 2 of the playoffs over the past 2 years, you
will find that the dogs have gone 7-1 ATS and 4-4 SU. Last year, San
Diego was a 10 pt dog traveling to a rested Indianapolis and the
Chargers won SU 28-24 with a hobbled offense. The N.Y. Giants
traveled to a rested Dallas as 7 pt dogs and won SU 21-17.
Jacksonville traveled to a rested New England as a 13 pt dog and
lost by just 11, covering by 2. Seattle was the only ATS loser
getting blown out at Green Bay. In the previous year, Indianapolis
traveled to a rested Baltimore as a 4 pt dog and won SU 15-6.
Seattle traveled to a rested Chicago as a 9 pt dog and lost by just
3 in OT. New England traveled to a rested San Diego as a 5 pt dog
and won SU 24-21. And Philadelphia traveled to a rested New Orleans
as a 6 pt dog, losing by just a FG, 27-24. So that’s 8 teams that
had to play a 1st round game, traveling to 8 rested opponents as
dogs and only one of them lost ATS, with 4 of them winning outright.
So there is certainly a precedence.
This is not saying that Carolina won’t win by double-digits. You
never know how the game will unfold. But I think the value is
obviously with the high-powered Arizona offense and the 10 pts, and
that’s going to be my pick. The Arizona Cardinals +10 pts.
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