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PENN STATE AT OHIO STATE

KEY RELEASE

10/25/08

2* Penn State -2 over Ohio State - There's alot more on the line this week in Columbus than just a football game. This game of course has Big 10 Title ramifications, but on the larger scale, has major significance on the National scene. A loss by Penn State would be a knock on the entire Big 10 Conference. If that happens, all you'll hear about is how the Big 10 is a weak conference that deserves no recognition or credit when talking National Title game. They'll say that Ohio State couldn't compete with USC, and then Penn State lost to Ohio State.......well, you get the picture and you know what? They'd be 100% correct. As it is, even if Penn State wins big, they are still going to be criticized for schedule strength. A look at either one of these two teams schedules is enough to make you yawn. This week will be the toughest game for both of these teams all year long. A Penn State win here and we're likely looking at Penn State undefeated and in the Title game. Imagine that, Joe Pa going out with the crown. That would be a story that even Hollywood couldn't have come up with. But we're getting ahead of ourselves.

This weeks game will likely be decided in the trenches which is why we like our chances with the Paternos. Both the offensive and defensive lines for Penn State have been playing great, dominating opponents while Ohio State might have some problems, particularly on the offensive line where they have suffered some injuries and start a freshman at center. Last year Penn State didn't force Ohio State to punt once. This year we think it will be a little different.

The skilled positions get all the glory. But it's the trenches that decide games like these, particularly in the Big 10 and we feel Penn State has the edge here on both sides of the ball. We'd also give them the edge at QB. Penn State did have some trouble with Juice Williams when they faced Illinois but as the game went on,  they were able to slow him down. The stage may be a little too big this week for Ohio States Terrelle Pryor. His production went down every game until his big blowout performance against Mich State last week but this will be his biggest test to date for sure. He figures to be on his heels and off to the races quite a bit this week and if Penn State can contain him, it's game over. Cut off the head and the tail will follow.

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We also have some additional motivational factors here. How about revenge times 7. That's how many times Ohio State has beaten JoePa in Columbus since Penn State joined the Big 10. They have also beaten Penn State the last two times they have played including last years dominating effort. Big game for JoePa. Big game for the Penn State Juniors and Seniors.

Penn State has been the better team this year. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball and have a fantastically balanced offense. Ohio State has struggled at times, has some injuries on the lines, and in our opinion, still has a question mark at QB. Pryor hasn't seen anything close to what he'll see Saturday Night. This is simply a matter of backing the better football team, which should be enough to overcome the Ohio State home field advantage. A quick score or two shuts up 100,000 people pretty damn fast. You should be able to do better than -2.5 by game time. As always, watch the number. 2* Penn State -2 or better

BETTING TRENDS

PENN STATE
Penn State is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Penn State's last 7 games
Penn State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Penn State is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Ohio State
Penn State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Ohio State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State's last 6 games when playing Ohio State
Penn State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ohio State
Penn State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ohio State

OHIO STATE
Ohio State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ohio State's last 7 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Ohio State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Penn State
Ohio State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Penn State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ohio State's last 6 games when playing Penn State
Ohio State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Penn State
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Penn State