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2008 SEC COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW
ODDS - ANALYSIS -
PREDICTIONS - SCHEDULE
Here we go folks. The 2008-2009 SEC Football season is staring us in the
face. I don't know about you guys, but personally, I can't wait to kick it off.
Especially in the SEC where there is something to look forward to each and every
week. Who could forget last year? Remember the Florida Gators doing battle with
LSU and losing by 4, then traveling to Kentucky to win a shootout by 8? Speaking
of Kentucky, who could forget all the thrills the Wildcats gave us last year,
knocking off LSU and taking Tennessee to 4 overtimes in a thrilling 52-50 loss.
Did I say thrilling? How about South Carolina vs. Arkansas? South Carolina vs.
Tennessee. I mentioned Arkansas, who could forget their 3 OT upset of #1 ranked
LSU to end the year? Ah yes. The Southeastern Conference. Tee it up baby. Let's
get this party started.
Aside from the great football played in the SEC, it's also a great conference
to handicap. Much of that has to do with the rich tradition and history in the
SEC. There are some bitter rivalries. Emotion, revenge and series history all
play huge rolls in handicapping college ball and outside of the Big 10, perhaps
no other conference in football can come close. It doesn't take a rocket
scientist to predict that teams like Florida, Georgia, Auburn and LSU will be
good. They are always good. It's it bit more tricky to handicap the rest of the
field, but, let's take a look and see what's in store for 2008-2009.
The Odds
to win the SEC are provided by the Largest Sportsbook in the World -
Sportsbook.com
SEC EAST
Georgia (odds
to win SEC 2-1) - Why not kick things off with the Georgia Bulldogs. They deserve it.
Only LSU has more wins in the entire SEC than Georgia over the last 8 years.
They finished 11-2 last year and number 2 in the nation. They are loaded once
again this year returning 8 on offense and 9 on defense including just about all
of their key personnel from a year ago. So, yeah, the Bulldogs are going to be a
very good football team this year. But let's not hand them the National Title
just yet. Actually, we can't even hand them the SEC title just yet. The SEC is
without a doubt the toughest conference in football. There's no letup. The hits
just keep on coming week after week. Georgia has to play at LSU and at Auburn
this year. No easy task, even for coach Mark Richt who is 25-4 on the road!
Let's also not lose sight of last year and some of the results we saw. Georgia
didn't exactly dominate the competition week in and week out. Let's start with a
16-12 loss, at home to South Carolina in the 2nd game of the year. A couple of
weeks later, it took overtime to get by Alabama by a field goal. A couple weeks
after that, Tennessee obliterated the Bulldogs 35-14. They also just squeaked by
Vandy by a field goal not long after that. A play here and there, and 11-2 could
have been 8-5. Either way, this is a solid football team that finds a way to win
10+ games more often than not. Looking at their schedule, they could be 7-0 on
October 25th when they travel to LSU. October 25th thru November 15th will
determine their year as they face LSU, Florida and Auburn in that stretch. Key
games? They get a chance to settle two scores from a year ago against the only
teams to beat them. Circle September 13th (at South Carolina) and October 11th
on your schedules (The Vols at home)
Florida (odds
5/2) - We led off with Georgia but could just as easily have kicked of
with the Gators. Florida is always loaded. They attract the best Florida talent
(which is extensive) and have one of the recruiting classes year after year.
Like Georgia, they return just about everyone. 8 on each side of the ball
including Heisman winner Tim Tebow. Unlike Georgia, although they had just 9
wins to Georgia's 11, they DID dominate teams they were supposed to dominate.
They blew out Tennessee, Vandy, South Carolina and Florida State, not to mention
the tomatoes cans they played early on. Their games against other "good" teams,
were all close. Auburn, LSU, Georgia and Michigan in the Bowl game are all games
that could have gone either way. So while Georgia's 11-2 could have been 8-5,
Florida's 9-4 could have just as easily been 11-2 or 12-1. There's no question
this team wins a minimum of 9 games once again this year. Their season will come
down to games at Tennessee, LSU at home, and Georgia in the big Cocktail party.
Ok, throw in Spurrier and SC as well. No excuses though. Anything less than 10
wins from this team will be a major disappointment.
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Tennessee (odds
7-1) - The Vols somehow managed to win 10 games last year and a share of
the SEC title. But, perhaps they had a little lady luck on their side as well.
Anyone who looks at their body of work from a year ago, can't possibly come away
thinking, man, that was one good team. Good teams don't get beat 45-31, 59-20
and 41-17. But there were some bright spots as well. Like slamming Georgia 35-14
and playing LSU tight, 21-14, in the title game. Fulmer's job was rumored
to be on the line going into the year, but really, a look at the Vols past
several years and you see nothing but winning seasons. Multiple 10 and 11 win
seasons with the only losing year coming in 2005 when they went 5-6. The Vols
will have to get things done this year without star QB Eric Ainge. His departure
figures to have a big impact on the team but they do return 8 from an offense
that had no trouble finding the end zone. Based on the results of this program
over the years, you know the Vols will be competitive. It's a
minimum 7 or 8 win season for the Vols. If they can come up big in key games
against Florida, Auburn or Georgia, it could be 10 wins.
South Carolina (odds
12-1) - I was high on the Gamecocks heading into last season. 7
games into the season I was looking like a genius as Spurrier had his team at
6-1 and looking like a guaranteed contender for the SEC crown. They then
proceeded to lose their last 5 games finishing 6-6 and not even an invitation to
a bowl game. Talk about a disappointment. But you have to look at the positives
here. They had a brutal stretch of games to end the season. Tennessee, Arkansas,
Florida and Clemson. They were in every game except the Florida game. They lost
in OT to the Vols. They lost a game to Arkansas where both teams were moving the
ball up and down the field and SC had their chances and they lost by 2 to
Clemson. Couple that with their nice 6-1 start and the fact that they return 10
starters to a respectable defense (16.1 yards per point) and 7 on offense and
there's no reason to think SC won't be a threat this year each time they take
the field. Looking at their schedule, the 2nd half of the season will once again
be the key. It looks like a 6-1 start is once again possible this year but they
get LSU, Tennessee, Florida and Clemson to end the year. Providing they can get
the wins early in the year, and then beat one or two of the big boys on the 2nd
half of their schedule, Spurrier should at least have this team in a bowl game
this year. The talent is there for more than just a mid December Bowl game.
Kentucky (odds
40-1) - I made it a point to mention many times last year that Kentucky
needed to take advantage of the team they had in place because those
opportunities don't come Kentucky's way, in football, very often. A glimpse at
Kentucky's records over the last several years shows a bunch of 2 and 3 win
seasons. They won 8 in 2006 and had perhaps their best shot in years to make
some noise in 2007 with several key players including QB Andre Woodson. They
started the year 5-0 and caught everyone's attention with wins over Louisville
and Arkansas. They had a setback at South Carolina and then shocked the nation
with an upset of number one ranked LSU in triple overtime. They stood at 6-1
with a victory over number one. But they couldn't hold on down the stretch. They
played well, and gave us all some thrills, and almost broke a 22 game losing
streak when they lost a thriller to Tennessee 52-50 in 4 OT's. But other stretch
losses to Miss St, Georgia and Florida kept them at 8-5 and a minor bowl game
against Florida St. So, a good year by Kentucky football standards, but, a huge
disappointment when you consider what could have been. For 2008, it looks like
it's back to mediocrity, or worse. They lose Woodson, 3 of their top receivers
and other Key offensive players this year. They return 8 defensive starters, but
really, that's insignificant as no one ever accused Kentucky of having a good
stop unit. Their defensive yards per point number last year was 13.4. Not good.
It was fun while it lasted. When does basketball start?
Vanderbilt (odds
50-1) - You can always count on Vanderbilt for two things each football
season. One being a record that will usually see between 2-5 wins (they
haven't had a winning year in 25 years). The other being an upset of a major SEC
powerhouse or at the very least, a cover. Last year they lost to Georgia by 3,
beat South Carolina and lost to the Vols by one. The year before they lost to
Bama and Arkansas by a couple points, they beat Georgia and lost to the National
Champion Florida Gators by just 6. This isn't something new. Seems to happen
every year with Vandy. Most of the time, Vandy is anywhere from an 8 point dog
to double digits. So while no one is calling for Vandy to even have a winning
record, they are still worth keeping a close eye on from a betting standpoint.
Look for those few spots which you know will happen as they do every year, where
you can step in and take a shot with the Commodores. There's always some extra
value to be had with losing teams and just as sure as I'm sitting here typing
this, you can be sure Vandy will upset or cover against one or more of the top
teams in the SEC on their schedule this year.
SEC WEST
LSU (odds
4-1) - The West looks like it may be a little easier to unscramble than the
East. It looks like LSU and Auburn leading the way with Alabama and maybe a
surprise from Miss St rounding out the top four. You've got to give LSU respect.
They are the champs until someone knocks them off. What you need to remember
about a team like LSU is that it really doesn't matter which players they lose,
how many starters are returning, etc. They recruit some of the best talent in
the nation year after year and will always be loaded. Their past is filled with
11 and 12 win seasons. Never less than 8 wins. 8 wins is a down year for this
program. No team in the SEC has won more games than LSU over the last 8 seasons.
They start the year once again with a cake walk and 3 easy games but then things
get interesting. In a months time they get Auburn, Florida, Georgia and
South Carolina with 3 of those 4 games being on the road. The LSU season will be
decided in that stretch, but one thing is certain. Every game on the LSU
schedule, is winnable. There are very few teams you can say that about in
College football. Pencil the Tigers in for at worst, a very late December Bowl
game. More likely, a New Years day affair.
Auburn (odds
5/2) - Auburn is another team you can't count out. Year after year they
win. This year they get what looks like their two toughest games, at home, LSU
and Georgia. There is a minimum of 8 wins on their schedule with the rest
depending on what they do against the big boys. They have an interesting matchup
on a Thursday night in October when they travel to West Virginia. It looks like
Auburn has the inside track in the SEC West and should contend for the SEC title
this year. They return 9 on offense and 7 on defense. If they can handle WVA on
the road and win their home games against LSU and Georgia, who knows, we could
be looking at more than just SEC title hopes. Remember, Auburn is still upset
about being snubbed in 2004 when they went 13-0 but didn't get to play in the
title game. Keep your eye on Auburn. We'll have a better idea after the LSU game
on September 20.
Alabama (odds
6-1) - Keep an eye on the Crimson Tide this year folks. This team has
displayed all of the classic characteristics of a team "about to have a good
year". At 7-6, with win number 7 coming in the Independence Bowl, Bama might not
jump out at most as a team to watch. But sometimes, you can learn as much about
a teams chances from their losses as you can from their wins the previous year.
More specifically, Alabama had the chance to win every game last year. No one
dismantled the Tide. Sure, they lost to LSU, Auburn and Georgia to name 3, but
they lost by a TD or less. As a matter of fact, all of their 6 losses were by a
TD or less. Now that Saban has a year under his belt, and Bama returns 7
offensive players and 6 on defense, the team should have plenty of confidence
that it can play with the best the SEC has to offer. I'd especially look for the
offense to gel. Bama had their highest point production in years from their
offense Key games? Bama opens against Clemson, which should answer
some questions about this steam right off the bat. They then have 3 games they
should win before facing Georgia with a little chance for revenge on September
27th. Last year Georgia beat the Tide in OT. If both of these team have the kind
of years we're expecting, September 27th could be a classic.
Mississippi State (odds
30-1) - Miss State is worthy of a brief mention here. They have
rarely exceeded 3 wins in any given year over the last decade yet are coming off
an 8-5 year and have quite of few of the same kids back this year. They were
blown out by LSU to start the year but managed wins against Auburn, Kentucky and
Alabama last year and didn't embarrass themselves against a few other SEC
powers. It looks like there's a possible 7 or 8 wins on the dance card this year
so we'll have to keep an eye on the Bulldogs.
Arkansas (odds
50-1) - Arkansas should be a mess this year. They lost their entire
offense.....which was McFadden and Jones, the best back duo in recent memory and
are going with a completely new offensive scheme this year. Going from a running
attack to a passing attack. With so few returning starters, a new coach, and a
new system to learn, we don't expect much from the Razorbacks this year. Perhaps
there will be some nice early season value going against them if the oddsmakers
let last year factor into their lines.
Mississippi (odds
60-1) - This is a case where you have quite a few returning starters,
but still kind of have to say, so what. It's returning starters from a 3-9 team.
They weren't very good last year. It will be interesting to see what new coach
Houston Nutt can do with the Rebels. He has no McFadden and Johns to carry him
here. So we'll have to wait and see here. Many of my handicapping peers are
picking Mississippi to vastly improve and surprise this year. I'm not sold. We
shall see.
So there you have it. The SEC is often the most difficult conference to
preview. Certainly, it's usually the longest preview, because there are so many
good teams, and really no one that you can safely skip over, as in other
conferences that sport just 2 or 3 powers. The SEC is also one of the best
conferences to wager on. Anytime you have parity, history, and just plain good
football teams battling it out in a conference, you have all the ingredients to
find some nice wagers!
From a futures betting standpoint, betting a team to win the SEC,
it's hard to reccomend teams with short odds such as Georgia and
Florida. Futures betting, can be compared to horse racing. Finding
that undervalued team at decent odds and hoping to make a score. Of
all the SEC teams with a "shot", I'd pick South Carolina and Steve
Spurrier at 12-1 odds as the best "value" on the board.
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