|
Stanford
Cardinal at California Golden Bears
11/22/08
This has probably been a rather disappointing season for the Cal
Bears considering the start they had. They went 2-0 to start the
season, including a 38-31 win over a highly regarded Michigan St
team. And then they were 2 TD favorites and ranked traveling to
Maryland to take on the ACC Terrapins. Only problem is that
under-rated Maryland was ready for them and the Bears got whooped on
pretty good. They were able to recover from that disappointment
though as they came back to win the next 4 out of 5 games to get to
6-2 overall and 4-1 in the PAC-10, with a shot to actually win the
conference. But consecutive losses to USC and Oregon St have ended
those aspirations as they are now sitting at just 6-4 overall, and
4-3 in the conference. They have this week’s home game vs Stanford,
followed by a bye week, before finishing up on Dec 6 with a home
game vs Washington. Even though they are already bowl-eligible, an
8-4 final season record is well within reach and would likely ensure
a better bowl match-up for them. And it would also be a big
improvement on last years disappointing 6-6 record which was only
good enough to earn them a spot in the Armed Forces Bowl at Ft.
Worth, TX against Air Force.
With the consecutive losses, the Bears seem to be headed for what
has recently become their annual late season collapse. In 2005,
coming off of a 10-1 season, they started out a strong 5-0, only to
lose 4 of their last 6 games to end up in the Las Vegas Bowl. In
2006 they started out 8-1 and were looking at a major BCS berth,
before losing 2 of their last 3 games and settling for Texas A&M in
the Holiday Bowl. In 2007 they again started out a strong 5-0 before
totally falling apart and losing 5 of their last 6 games and
settling for the lowly Armed Forces Bowl. So here they are now in
2008, starting out 4-1 and, again, slipping to lose 3 out of their
last 5 games, and 2 in a row leading up to this game.
They have really battled on defense the last 2 games, but have just
not been able to generate much offensively. In the loss to the USC
Trojans two weeks ago, Cal managed a measly 165 yds of total offense
and just 3 points. They ran 57 plays and only managed to get 13
FD’s. Last week at Oregon St, although they did get 21 points by
virtue of a couple big plays, they were again stymied on offense,
being held to just 232 yds of total offense and just 11 FD’s. The
offensive funk is a little perplexing considering the weapons the
Bears possess. QB’s Nate Longshore and Kevin Riley have combined for
over 2000 passing yds, 19 TD’s and just 9 INT’s, with 8 different
players having double-digit receptions and at least 196 yds
receiving. RB Jahvid Best is ranked at #1 in the conference in
all-purpose running with an average of 163 yds per game rushing,
receiving and returns, and is ranked 2nd behind Oregon St.’s
Jacquizz Rodgers with an average of 98 yds rushing per game.
On defense, over their last 5 games, UCLA is the only team that
hasn’t torched them on the ground though. In the 10 pt win over
Oregon and the 3 losses to Arizona, USC and Oregon St, the Bears
have given up over 750 yds on the ground, for an average of 188 ypg
rushing, and 7 rushing TD’s.
The Stanford Cardinal have to feel pretty good about how things have
gone for them so far as they have certainly been much more
competitive this year. Coming off of a 1-11 season in 2006 and a 4-8
season last year, they are currently sitting at 5-6 overall and 4-4
in the conference. One more win would make them bowl eligible for
the first time since 2001. And a win here would be even sweeter
because this is the annual rivalry game against the cross-town Cal
Bears in which the winner is awarded the coveted ‘Stanford Axe’, a
trophy whose origins go back over 100 years to1899. Stanford
currently has possession of the prized trophy by virtue of a 20-13
upset of Cal last year, and I can assure you they are not ready to
give it up just yet.
The Cardinal are just 4-4 in their last 8 games, but they have been
very competitive. They were able to hang with Notre Dame on the road
in a 28-21 loss. Then the week after defeating a very good Arizona
team, they lost by just 3 in another road game at UCLA on a last
second Bruin TD. They then thumped a hapless Washington St team
58-0, before falling in consecutive games to PAC-10 powers Oregon
and USC. The loss to Oregon was another road game where they
competed very well though, as the game was tied at 28 until the
Ducks scored with just 6 seconds left to pull out the 7 pt win. And
last week’s 45-23 loss to USC might look like it was a rout, but the
game was tied 17-17 at HT, and the Trojans only led by 7 going into
the 4th Q. Stanford was able to generate 367 yds of total offense,
including 202 on the ground, and had the same number of FD’s as USC
at 21.
The Stanford offense, which is led by Junior QB Tavita Pritchard,
boasts a power running game featuring 2 premiere RB’s in Toby
Gerhart and Anthony Kimble, who have combined for over 1700 rushing
yds and 20 TD’s. Take away their 58-0 thrashing of Washington St.,
and the Cardinal are still averaging 26 pts per game in PAC-10
games, as compared to 29.7 for the Cal Bears.
These 2 teams are not that far apart from each other in most PAC-10
offensive categories. Cal is the better passing team, but Stanford
has the much better rushing stats. Cal has the better passing
defense, but they are pretty close on rushing defense. Stanford’s
strength is in the running game anyway, and with the way Cal’s
defense has been giving up yards on the ground, Stanford should be
able to move the chains and control the clock to some degree.
Another thing to consider is the trend the Bears have been following
the past few years with the late season collapses. And throw in the
importance of this game as far as the rivalry aspect, and Stanford’s
shot at a bowl game, and I think it all boils down to a very close,
competitive game. This may not be one of the more widely known or
publicized rivalries, but trust me…..it is a huge rivalry. And you
can usually throw out the team’s records when they meet. Even in
Stanford’s 1-11 2006 season when they traveled across the Bay to
play the 9-3 Bears, it was a 6 pt game with under a minute left
before Cal kicked a FG with 58 seconds left for the 26-17 victory.
Which is basically where the line has been for this game, at between
8 ½ - 9 pts, depending on where you look. Either way, that’s a lot
of points to give to a team that could easily pull the upset. To
show you how even this match-up has been, since 1996, Stanford is
7-5 SU and 6-5-1 ATS against the Bears. Stanford is 2-0 ATS and 1-1
SU the past 2 years, winning by 7 last year as a 14 pt home
underdog, and losing by 9 the previous year as 29 ½ pt road dogs.
The weather calls for sunny skies and temps in the high 60’s, so
weather should not be an issue. I’ll look for Cal to continue to
give up big yards on the ground allowing for the Cardinal to keep
the game within reach, and potentially being in a position to pull
off the upset. Stanford Cardinal +8 ½ or 9, whichever you can find.
|
