9/20/08
Last week I wrote about how two teams, Tennessee and Arizona State, may be looking ahead to this week’s action and let a inferior opponent sneak in for a nice ATS win. It was ALMOST a 2-0 week as I took UNLV +23 and UAB +30.5 as plays with UNLV the strongest of the two. Well, Arizona State was looking ahead and lost SU, 20-23 to UNLV. But Tennessee barely covered with a 35-3 win over UAB–I just missed predicting the final Scoretoo, I said it would be Tenny 35-10, not 3. Close does not cash tickets however!
I am going to stick with the same coNCept this week with what I think is an even better team getting quite a few points in a look-a-head situation.
That team is the Temple Owls currently getting 28.5 points on the road in Happy Valley vs. Penn State. Temple comes in 1-2 but 3-0 ATS the spread this year in the win vs. Army, and then the Very close loses against UConn and Buffalo-Two Games that they should have won. This is not the Temple of old either, they have some weapons and a Strong Senior QB in Adam DiMichele to lead them on the field and talented coach Al Golden on the sideline.
Penn State has destroyed everything in its way so far this year with the most recent being Syracuse last week. The main factor in this play is the look-ahead to Illinois next week. Not only are they looking ahead for the Game, but also are in a revenge situation in that Game and probably have had it circled since camp opened. I know PSU will scoresome points and stop Temple, but I think PSU will have Illinois on their minds just enough for temple to keep it within 4 Tds. Temple will not quit and I think JoPa will rest some people as they run up the lead and coast into Big 10 play. Also for the trend players, the Nittany Lions are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS vs. Temple before playing Illinois.
Penn State 41, Temple 17. Temple +28.5 over Penn State. (Note: If you are going to play this, wait as far up until kick-off as possible to get the best number possible, which could be at least 29.5 by Game time. )
Team records:
Temple: 1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS
Penn State: 3-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
Temple most recently:
When playing in September are 0-10
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outGAined are 1-9
When playing outside the Conference are 2-8
Penn State most recently:
When playing in September are 7-3
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outGAining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the Conference are 10-0
A few trends to consider:
Temple is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 Games
Temple is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 Games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Temple’s last 10 Games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Temple’s last 15 Games on the road
Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 Games when playing Temple
Penn State is 23-2 SU in its last 25 Games at home
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 Games
Penn State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 Games when playing Temple
Next up:
Temple home to Western Michigan, Saturday, September 27
Penn State home to Illinois, Saturday, September 27