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Ohio St vs Texas
1/5/08
Please Note -
This write up is from one of our regular contributors, a very fine
handicapper. Bettorsworld has a Key Release on this game opposite of
this writers prediction. You can read our Key Release thoughts on
this game
right here
The #13 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) meet the #3 Texas Longhorns
(11-1) in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl from Glendale, AZ. In case
you didn’t know, this is where the NFL Arizona Cardinals play their
home games. The field surface is a hybrid Bermuda grass, which would
be similar to what the Longhorns play on at home. The Buckeyes play
on an artificial surface (Field-Turf). There was an NFL playoff game
scheduled there on Saturday, of course, and there is a little rain
in the forecast so not sure how that would affect the field
condition.
The Longhorns had a great season but they are certainly a little
disappointed in the outcome. At 11-1, with their only loss being on
the road at 11-1 Texas Tech on a last second flukey TD to Michael
Crabtree, they were hoping to play in the BCS National Championship
Game against Florida. Instead, they were beat out by about a 10th of
a point in the BCS standings by Oklahoma and had to settle for the
10th ranked Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl. Texas started off the
season 5-0 playing against inferior competition. But then they let
everyone know they were for real with back to back to back wins over
#1 Oklahoma, #11 Missouri and #7 Oklahoma State to earn the #1
ranking in the nation. That was followed by that last second loss to
then # 6 ranked Texas Tech, but they regrouped to win their final 3
games by a combined score of 129-37.
In the high-scoring Big 12, Texas had the 3rd ranked scoring offense
in the conference with an average output of nearly 44 points per
game (43.92). And in a conference not known for playing much
defense, they boasted the #1 ranked defense, allowing an average of
just 18.5 points per game, which was a full 6 pts less than the #2
ranked Oklahoma defense. Most of their defensive stats came against
much lesser competition though. In their 4 games against the ranked
opponents listed above, they gave up an average of just over 32
points per game. But they did maintain their scoring average in
those games with an average of 40.5 points per game scored.
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Longhorn QB Colt McCoy was one of the best in the nation, completing
an amazing 77.6% of his passes for 3445 yds, 32 TD’s and just 7
INT’s. He was also the leading rusher on the team with 576 yds on
128 attempts for a 4.5 YPC average and 10 more TD’s. Overall, the
Texas offense amassed over 5700 yds and 66 TD’s, with 32 coming on
the ground and 34 through the air.
The Ohio St. Buckeyes had the benefit of playing in a Big-10
conference that was a few notches down in quality this year. They
lost their two most meaningful games of the year against USC and
Penn St, only scoring a combined 9 pts in those games. They did get
quality wins at Michigan St and against Northwestern, out-scoring
those two bowl bound teams by a combined 90-17. But then they only
beat a lousy 4-8 Ohio U MAC team by 12 in a 26-14 home win, and they
only scored 16 pts against a Purdue team that gave up an average of
42.5 pts to Michigan, Notre Dame and Northwestern.
Overall, the Ohio St offense average 28 pts per game, but they were
wildly inconsistent. Against DIV 1-A opponents, they scored over 40
pts three times, over 26 in three more games and in 4 of their games
they scored 20 or less.
Ohio St started the year with QB Todd Boeckman behind center, but
during the USC game they inserted scrambling freshman Terrelle Pryor
who has been the starter ever since. Being a run-first team, Pryor
has put up a modest 1245 yds on 152 attempts, completing 62.5% for
12 TD’s and just 4 INT’s. He is also the 2nd leading rusher on the
team with 553 yds and 6 TD’s. But of course the main offensive focus
for the Buckeyes is the 6’1”, 237 lb RB Chris Wells, who has put up
nearly 1100 yds and 8 TD’s despite missing 3 games due to injury.
Wells has averaged a decent 5.7 ypc behind a good OL. As a team, the
Ohio St offense put up almost 4100 yds and 32 TD’s.
The Buckeye defense ranked 2nd in the Big-10, behind Penn St, and
only gave up an average of 279 yds per game and 18 total TD’s. They
had the #1 ranked pass defense, giving up just 164 yds per game, as
well as the #3 ranked rushing defense in the conference with an
average of just 115 yds per game.
Playing the 10th toughest schedule in the nation, the Longhorns put
up 1600 yds and 34 more TD’s than the Ohio St offense, which played
the 45th toughest schedule. Against top caliber competition, the
Buckeyes managed just 200 yds of offense and 3 pts vs USC, and 287
yds and 6 pts vs Penn St. That’s no offensive TD’s and just 3 FG’s
total. Those defenses are likely better than this Texas defense, but
the Longhorns are likely to be fired up and out to prove a point in
this game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them really step it up. I
doubt if Ohio St is going to win in a shootout, so they need to
control the game with the run and try and keep McCoy off the field.
Texas has been able to out-score some of the top offenses in the
nation though, winning against Sam Bradford and the Sooners and
Chase Daniel and Missouri, both by double-digits. I don’t think Ohio
St can keep up in this one and I also think Texas can win by
double-digits. It’s a lot of points but I’m going with the
Texas Longhorns –8.
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