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3* Titans -3 over Texans - I had a conversation with someone earlier this week and we talked about the Titans vs. Texans game. I mentioned that I was surprised the Titans were only a field goal favorite over Houston. My fellow prognosticator said, "yeah, but the Texans are playing well right now". So, I had to dig a little deeper. In doing so, I noticed the Texans have won 3 in a row. Hey, congrats to the Texans or that. They sat at 3-7 a few weeks ago and are now 6-7. Many had mentioned the Texans as a team to watch this year. You'd have to say the season as a whole has been a big disappointment for them but they have put three in a row together and are on a little roll.
But folks, the difference between these two teams is like night and day. You first have to look at who the Texans have beat during this 3 game winning streak. The Packers, Jags and Browns. That's the 5-8 Packers, the 4-9 Browns and the 4-9 Jags. Instead of looking at the last 3 games, take a look at what the Texans have done against "good" teams this year. Playoff teams. a 38-17 loss to the Steelers. 31-12 loss to these Titans. A 41-13 loss to the Ravens. They did have two shoot out losses to the Colts but it's not as if the Colts are a defensive powerhouse. The Texans other wins this year came against the Lions and Bengals.
You don't have to use any fancy formulas or look at any special stats to determine that the Titans are for real. Just look at their season results thus far. You don't go 11-1 in the NFL by accident. Yes, people are going to point to the strength of schedule for the Titans so far and that angle does have some credibility. They haven't exactly had it tough. There are no signature wins against the NFL's elite. Actually, scratch that last sentence. They beat the Ravens. But other than the game they gave away to the Jets, they disposed of everyone they faced including the Ravens and Colts. They played many of the same teams these Texans played with much different results.
Look at any eventual conference champions records down the stretch over the years and you'll find one common denominator. Dominating wins. Dominating wins and lots of covers along the way. The Texans have given up 28 points or more 8 times this year. The Titans gave up 34 to the Jets and 21 to the Colts. Every other game saw them give up 17 points or less. Usually less. The Titans are a team that will contend for the chance to go to the Super Bowl this year and will likely play in the AFC Championship game. The Texans are a 6-7 team that happened to win their last three games all against losing teams. Frankly, the Texans are not a very good football team while the Titans are very good. It's really that simple.
We have no problem trusting the Titans with our money for 60 minutes. You can listen to all the talk about trap lines, letdowns, the Texans being hot, and so on. All that talk will do is talk you out of solid investments. This game is good vs. bad. Playoff vs. non playoff. Defense against defenseless. The Titans have beaten the Texans by 3 or more in 6 of the last 7 times they have played. So why not one more time in the year that finds the Titans as one of the best in the NFL? Also note that the Titans have won 15 of their last 16 games. They locked up a first round bye last week but the job still isn't complete. They are looking for home field advantage throughout the playoffs and are coming off a less than stellar performance against the Browns last week in a game in which they won regardless despite uncharacteristic penalties and giveaways. Expect a focused effort this week. The Titans can have all the letdowns they want AFTER they clinch home field throughout. Quite frankly, if they can't win here in Houston with so much to gain, they don't deserve home field throughout.
3* TITANS -3 OVER TEXANS
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