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Minnesota Vikings +2.5 @ Green Bay Packers

9/8/08





The Green Bay Packers will enter the season without Brett Favre at the controls for the first time in 15 years. Last year he led them to a 13-3 regular season record and the NFC championship game, where they lost in OT to the N.Y. Giants. The Packers also had the best regular season ATS record in the NFL at 12-3-1, including 6-1-1 at home. This year it will be Aaron Rodgers, in his 4th year out of the University of California, who has 1 NFL TD to his credit. Rodgers should have some solid support on offense in RB Ryan Grant and WRs Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, as well as a very good OL. I seriously doubt if they will average 27 pts per game again though. DT Corey Williams and his 7 sacks will be a big loss on the defensive side.


The Minnesota Vikings will be starting Tarvaris Jackson for the second year in a row. In 12 games last year he was very average, at best, with just over 1900 yds, 9 TDs and 12 INTs for a 70.8 QB rating. He does have one of the best RBs in the NFL behind him in Adrian Peterson though, as well as a very good RB in Chester Taylor. The two RBs combined for 20 of the Vikings 43 total TDs last year. Jackson is also a threat to run as he accounted for 260 yds and 3 TDs on the ground. The Vikings were 8-8 SU and 7-6-3 ATS last year. On the road they went 3-5 SU and 3-2-3 ATS. They did have a knack for hanging around though as 5 of their losses were by a TD or less. Much of the reason for that can be attributed to the defense, which allowed an average of just under 18 pts per game.


The Minnesota defense should again be one of the best in the NFL, and the absence of Favre really evens out this matchup. I am really leaning towards the Vikings in this game, with the more experienced QB, the more dangerous running back duo of Peterson and Taylor, as well as a little better defense. Vikings +3.




 

BETTING TRENDS
 

MINNESOTA
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Minnesota is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay

GREEN BAY
Green Bay is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Green Bay is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 9 games
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Green Bay is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

 


 

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