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THE BEST OF THE REST

WEEK 5 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS

10/4/08

Each week during our handicapping process, we look at every game on the board. Some games are eliminated immediately as they don't fit our criteria. Other games are give a closer look. Finally we arrive at our Key Releases. In this spot this week, we'll take a look at the games that didn't quite make the cut. Games that for one reason or another, we decided not to play.

Just a note for the superstitious - As is often the case, it seems the games you eliminate end up having a high winning percentage. Happens to all handicappers. Something scares you off a play, you pass, and sit back and watch the play win easily! Never fails.

 

Kansas State +7 over Texas Tech - Any time you have a home team getting a touchdown or more in a game that figures to be a last team with the ball wins type game, the home dog is almost an automatic play. These two fit the bill. They can both score points by the bucket and for both, defense is a four letter word. Yet this type of game simply doesn't fit our M.O. With this type of game comes uncertainty and the chance that a pick here and a fumble there changes everything. More so than your run of the mill smash mouth pound the ball type game, which we prefer. But this one was close to being a Key Release.

 

South Carolina +2.5 over Ole Miss - Big let down spot for Ole Miss and we still believe South Carolina has some surprises in store this year. We'd prefer the field goal of course but think Spurrier can take this straight up. The offense just can't get it going but this has happened before with SC and they have always picked it up at some point. But that requires us to guess when that will be which we prefer not to do.

 

Stanford +6.5 over Notre Dame - This one would only be considered at +7 or better. We still don't think Notre Dame is very good. These two, in our opinion, are evenly matched. A Stanford win outright wouldn't be a surprise at all. There's always a chance we'll use this one as a key release so check back before kick off.

 

Illinois +2.5 over Michigan - This one should be a great game to watch. Either team can win this one. We're leery of Michigan games in general. For one, this team will be a good team by years end. It's a gradual work in progress. Each week they are going to get a little better. No way to gauge how much better they'll be this week which is why we'll stay away. But based on season to date performance, this one goes to the wire.

 

Kentucky +16 over Alabama - Really only interested in this one at +17. Alabama is the real deal. We just don't know how good Kentucky is based on who they have played. Their defense is playing great and they did hold Louisville scoreless. We missed the boat though. You can't play a game +15 when it was +17 much of the week. That's suicidal for a bettor.

 

Wisconsin +1 over Ohio State - Opened 2.5. We'd like at least 3 even with a half point buy. But at 1 we'll let this one slide. Wisky at home, prime time atmosphere and coming off the loss last week, plus a little revenge to boot. We like Wisconsin here but would prefer a field goal security blanket. Keep an eye on the line.

 

So there you have it. These games are still on the table for us. A line move here or there. Some information one way or the other. Even the opinion of a handicapper we respect can push anyone of these games into a play for us, so it's best to check back on game day!

 

 

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