THE BEST OF THE
WEEK 5 COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Each week during our handicapping process, we look
at every game on the board. Some games are eliminated immediately as
they don't fit our criteria. Other games are give a closer look.
Finally we arrive at our Key Releases. In this spot this week, we'll
take a look at the games that didn't quite make the cut. Games that
for one reason or another, we decided not to play.
Just a note for the superstitious - As is often the
case, it seems the games you eliminate end up having a high winning
percentage. Happens to all handicappers. Something scares you off a
play, you pass, and sit back and watch the play win easily! Never
Kansas State +7 over Texas
Tech - Any time you have a home team getting a touchdown
or more in a game that figures to be a last team with the ball wins
type game, the home dog is almost an automatic play. These two fit
the bill. They can both score points by the bucket and for both,
defense is a four letter word. Yet this type of game simply doesn't
fit our M.O. With this type of game comes uncertainty and the chance
that a pick here and a fumble there changes everything. More so than
your run of the mill smash mouth pound the ball type game, which we
prefer. But this one was close to being a Key Release.
South Carolina +2.5 over
Ole Miss - Big let down spot for Ole Miss and we still
believe South Carolina has some surprises in store this year. We'd
prefer the field goal of course but think Spurrier can take this
straight up. The offense just can't get it going but this has
happened before with SC and they have always picked it up at some
point. But that requires us to guess when that will be which we
prefer not to do.
Stanford +6.5 over Notre
Dame - This one would only be considered at +7 or better.
We still don't think Notre Dame is very good. These two, in our
opinion, are evenly matched. A Stanford win outright wouldn't be a
surprise at all. There's always a chance we'll use this one as a key
release so check back before kick off.
Illinois +2.5 over Michigan
- This one should be a great game to watch. Either team
can win this one. We're leery of Michigan games in general. For one,
this team will be a good team by years end. It's a gradual work in
progress. Each week they are going to get a little better. No way to
gauge how much better they'll be this week which is why we'll stay
away. But based on season to date performance, this one goes to the
Kentucky +16 over Alabama
- Really only interested in this one at +17. Alabama is the real
deal. We just don't know how good Kentucky is based on who they have
played. Their defense is playing great and they did hold Louisville
scoreless. We missed the boat though. You can't play a game +15 when
it was +17 much of the week. That's suicidal for a bettor.
Wisconsin +1 over Ohio
State - Opened 2.5. We'd like at least 3 even with a half
point buy. But at 1 we'll let this one slide. Wisky at home, prime
time atmosphere and coming off the loss last week, plus a little
revenge to boot. We like Wisconsin here but would prefer a field
goal security blanket. Keep an eye on the line.
So there you have it. These games are still on the
table for us. A line move here or there. Some information one way or
the other. Even the opinion of a handicapper we respect can push
anyone of these games into a play for us, so it's best to check back
on game day!