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COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 7 PICKS

"THE BEST OF THE REST"

10/11/08

Minnesota +12 over Illinois - Give Illinois the edge for having played the tougher schedule to date but not by much. The Illini lost to Ohio State while Minny was beaten by Penn State but hard to fault the Gophers other than that game. They are one of the top teams in the nation in turnover margin and have some nice numbers on both sides of the ball. Too many points here.

 

Michigan State -1 over Northwestern - This one hardly an opinion. It's just that if you wanted to bet Northwestern, you missed the boat as you could have had +3 earlier in the week. Now all the value lies with the Spartans. A very weak call though.

 

Kentucky +3 (buy) over South Carolina - Everyone thought Kentucky was a one hit wonder. When Woodson left they figured it was all over. But damn, the Wildcats are still a pretty good football team. Kentucky putting up some great numbers defensively AND their offensive yards per point number is very good. SC playing well defensively but not putting up the numbers on offense they had hoped. Last week is was a bend but don't break effort against Bama as they held the high scoring Tide to 17 points in a 17-14 loss. No reason Kentucky can't win this one at home, straight up.

 

Vanderbilt -2 over Miss State - There is a correction in the Vandy market coming soon. Just not so sure this is the week. Miss St numbers are horrendous on both sides of the ball while Vandy keeps rolling, doesn't makes mistakes, gets turnovers, and........wins. Laying only 2 we're just asking for a straight up win here and Vandy is the much better team. Vandy stays undefeated straight up and against the spread.

 

Kansas State -3 over Texas AM - Both teams were pounded by offensive powerhouses last week. But it's the A&M defense that's having trouble keeping teams out of the end zone regardless of the opponent. How about this fact.......Kansas State has scored 28 or more every time they have taken the field this year. Texas AM has scored 28 or LESS each time they have taken the field. This number is very reasonable. Lay it.

 

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Oklahoma State +14 over Mizu - Hard not to take the points with both teams averaging about 53 points per game and giving up around 20. Mizu has the better defense but perhaps not 14 points better. When teams can score like these two, the BACK DOOR is always open.

 

Tennessee +12.5 over Georgia - So, does Georgia bounce back from the Bama loss and hammer Tennessee or do they stumble once again? We think they stumble. We think they aren't as good as some other folks do. Plus the Vols have had their number 2 years running in games that got out of hand on the scoreboard. Too many points. The Vols were still an SEC team last we checked.

 

UCLA +20 over Oregon - Speaking of too many points. The margin between these two teams is much closer. If you throw out the BYU loss for UCLA, it's not all that bad. The Bruins can keep it close.

 

Notre Dame +9 over North Carolina - This line may be on the verge of getting out of hand. The Irish defense vastly improved from a year ago. The Uconn score is a little misleading. Turnovers played a big role last week. Uconn had more yards on the ground and thru the air but the game got away from them. We'll take a shot with ND here especially if/when the number hits +10

 

Florida -6 over LSU - Did anyone happen to catch the bone head comments made by a couple of LSU defensive guys this week? They flat out said they wanted to "take out" Tebow this week. Talk about rallying the troops. Emotion is such a big part of college football. The last thing you ever want to do as a player or coach is give an opponent any additional motivation. This is on top of the revenge motive the Gators already have going for them. We hate to lay points with two solid teams going head to head in a huge game like this but Florida is the way to go here.

**Bonus Coverage from a staff member

New Meixco +23.5 over BYU... BYU may get caught peaking ahead to TCU next week against a good Lobos team that has won two strait and faced some good competition along the way. Saragin has their schedule rated #51 in the nation compared to BYU's 126 ranking. NM has played TCU, Tulsa, Arizona,and Texas A&M and actually beat a good Arizona club. BYU has not played anyone that great with UCLA being about the toughest team they faced. Good spot for New Mexico even though they are on the road. I think they have the talent to stay within the number. BYU 35, New Mexico 24.



Stanford +6 over Arizona...Another look ahead spot and a live home dog. Arizona has Cal on deck next week. Stanford is off a loss at Notre Dame but showed they are a lively bunch coming back in South Bend. Stanford is 3-3 and won its previous tow before losing at ND. Arizona has rolled thru their easy schedule but lost to New Mexico. Strength of schedule favors Stanford at #7, while Zona is way back at # 133. Look ahead and a home dog with some history of playing tough teams equals a possible outright win for the Cardinal. Stanford 28, Arizona 27



Colorado State +15 over TCU...This game is at Colorado State and that is what makes the play. If it were at TCU, I may lay off. As mentioned above, TCU and BYU square off next week. TCU may be peaking ahead a bit here to that game. CSU has a better schedule rank than TCU according to Saragin ratings and whipped a decent UNLV bunch last week. TCU ran all over SD State last week after getting smoked by Okie the previous week. Good spot and even if they jump out, I see TCU easing up a bit down the stretch giving the back-door a possibility for the Rams. TCU 28, CSU 17.

 

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