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Air Force at Navy Betting Line and Prediction

10/3/09

There’s something special about a game between the military academies. The future defenders of the United States look tough this year, and I mean both teams. The Navy Midshipmen currently have a record of 2-2, while the Air Force Falcons are 3-1. Navy will host the game, and either team is very capable of winning. The Midshipmen won last year’s meeting 33-27 and have won 6 straight over Air Force. You can bank on the Falcons being out for revenge.

The Air Force Falcons boast a very strong run game that is among the best in the nation. This is good and bad. It allows them to control the clock, but also makes them susceptible if they need to make up big points late in the game. They opened the year with an easy 72-0 win over Nicholls State, but some would think they were playing St. Teresa’s School For The Blind considering how overmatched their competition was. The Minnesota Gophers brought them back to Earth, defeating the Falcons 20-13. Air Force was hanging with the Gophers for most of the game, but was forced to hurry when down late in the game. They were unable to make up the deficit. The following week they picked up 298 yards on the ground beating New Mexico State 37-13.

Air Force looked good beating San Diego State 26-14 last week. They amassed 243 yards on the ground and RB Saver Stephens had 71 yards. The defense was the best that day though. They recovered a fumble and turned it into a TD, and ran an INT back for another TD. They actually had the only 2 TDs of the day for the Falcons. If they come out and play that kind of game against Navy then the Midshipmen will be in trouble. I’d like to see the Air Force offense get into a better rhythm early on, and establish the run which they are more than capable of doing.

The Navy Midshipman almost started the year off with a big bang, rallying in Columbus, OH nearly downing the Ohio State Buckeyes. If not for a terrible play call on a 2 point conversion they may have slain the Big Ten giant. QB Ricky Dobbs was amazing, passing for 156 yards and 2 TDs. He also ran for 83 yards and another 2 TDs. The Midshipmen did great on third down, converting 8-12, but ultimately were unable to take down the juggernaut that is Ohio State. They followed that loss up with a nice 32-14 win over Louisiana Tech. Sophomore RB Marcus Curry had 124 yards and 1 TD in that game. Navy would lose their next game against Pittsburgh, and then beat a terrible Western Kentucky team 38-22.

We're going to side with Air Force here to finally break through and beat Navy. This line opened Navy -3.5 and Air Force money has brought that number down to -2.5. We're not banking on needing the points here as we're calling for a straight up Air Force win. Air Force on the Money Line +125 or better.


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