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Ole Miss Seeks Upset - Alabama Favored by 4.5
Plus ATS Picks Angles and Trends for this SEC Football Matchup
10/10/09
Ole Miss Hosts the Mighty Crimson Tide Saturday and Oddsmakers at BetUS currently have Alabama favored by -4.5 with a total for the over/under set at 46 in what figures to be a very exciting, close game.
These are the kind of games that Coach Houston Nutt has made a career out of. He always likes the games where everyone is giving him no shot to win. In 2007 he beat #1 LSU in Death Valley in the last game of the year, and LSU went on to win the BCS Championship. In 2008 he upset #1 Florida in the Swamp and Florida also went on to win the BCS Championship. Houston Nutt and his Ole Miss Football team are going to need that same kind of magic to pull the upset here. This Ole Miss team has not lived up to the hype they received in the pre season.
They opened the year with two wins over two overmatched opponents, but then they
dropped their conference opener against South Carolina. Most people have given
up on Ole Miss, but like has been said that is when Houston Nutt is at his best.
The only problem is this Alabama team is arguably the best team in the country.
They are 5-0 with impressive wins over Virginia Tech and Arkansas. This Bama
defense has been nothing less than amazing so far this year, and if Bama is able
to make it all the way to the SEC Title game this defense will be the main
reason why.
THE PRIMETIME MATCHUP
Ole Miss’ Offensive Line vs. Alabama’s Defensive Line
The one thing that makes this Alabama defense arguably the best in the country
is their ability to get pressure on the opposing quarterback with their front
four. This is a huge asset for any defense to be able to get pressure on a QB
without needing to blitz, because instead of using your linebackers or secondary
for blitzing you can use them in pass coverage. As we saw in the South Carolina
game the way to beat Ole Miss is to get to Jevan Snead and make him make
decisions before he is ready. Coach Nick Saban is one of the best defensive
minds in football and his defense gives you many different looks. He blitzes
from anywhere on the field, but he’ll also drop 9 players back into coverage.
That kind of variety in your play calling makes an offensive coordinator’s life
difficult. Jevan Snead is what makes this Ole Miss team go. When he is playing
well they win, but when he is not they don’t. This offensive line will have to
give Jevan Snead time to make the right reads and time to make big plays or this
Alabama team will have this game wrapped up by halftime.
THE FINAL VERDICT
The Ole Miss Rebels are feeling dejected after their loss to South Carolina.
They can regain all the respect they lost in that game and then some by winning
this one. It will take a monumental effort, but it can be done. An Ole Miss win
would be helped by shutting down Alabama RB Ingram. He is a speedy and compact
runner that can make things happen. Take him out of the equation, and they
aren’t as good. They also need to create problems for Greg McElroy. The Crimson
Tide QB has been strong, but he isn’t the best QB in the league by any means. If
the defense is up to the task, Ole Miss will also need a huge game from Jevan
Snead on the offensive side of the ball.
It's important to remember, when handicapping a game like this, that neither of these teams has reached the point in their season where they are playing the meat and potatoes of their schedule. Sure, Alabama beat a good Virginia Tech team. But then who? Kentucky, Arkansas and two cream puffs. How good are Kentucky and Arkansas when compared to the nations elite? Not very.
Likewise for Ole Miss. A win against Vandy and a loss to South Carolina. Preceded by two tomotoe cans. We don't know for sure how good either team is. To emphasize that point further, when using yards per point to make a line on this game, Old Miss would be favored. Again, that's the result of who they have played.
This series has been a close one. Alabama has dominated as far as wins and losses go winning 13 of the last 15 and winning the last 4 straight up. But the last 4 games were all decided by a field goal. Not much has changed talent wise for either team since a year ago. Matter of fact Ole Miss has more starters from last years game taking the field in this years game than Bama does.
No reason to expect anything less than a close one, once again this year. The line opened Alabama -6.5 and has been bet down to -4.5. We agree with the line move. It kills us to take +4.5 when +6.5 was available earlier in the week. However, we think there is still some value at +4.5. Ole Miss +4.5
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