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Army vs Navy

Navy Favored by 14 at Bet Jamaica

12/12/09

Everyone ready for the huge college football card this week? There are three games on the board and two of those games involve teams most people have never heard of, including the Division 2 title game between Grand Valley State and NW Missouri St, which will probably be a fantastic game. Ah yes, this is when a little bit of college football withdrawal kicks in. At least until December 19th when the Bowl games begin.

Speaking of Bowl Games, Bettorsworld will have you covered. We will be covering just about all of them, with Key Releases on the ones that stand out, so be sure to check in often between December 19th and December 7th. We'll also be ramping up our NFL coverage as this is the time of the year we shine in the NFL.

In the meantime, we have the Army vs. Navy Game. Over the years, having a token wager on the Army/Navy game has become almost as traditional as having a wager on the Thanksgiving day games. True, it's not always the most competitive game, but it's the only game in town just about, which gives handicappers the chance to really pick the game apart and find an edge, if there's an edge to be had.

We love underdogs in rivalry games. There's a built in edge with an underdog in a game of this magnitude. They have the attitude that it's them against the world, no one is giving us a chance, let's go out there and show them, etc. etc. It's a powerful angle when you're dealing with a "capable" underdog. But we're not so sure Army is capable here.

To begin with, Navy played a schedule that was about a touchdown more difficult in strength than Army did, yet still managed an 8-4 season and a trip to the Texas Bowl on New Years Eve to face Missouri. Along the way, they almost upset Ohio State, and managed to beat Air Force, Wake Forest and Notre Dame. There are no such signature wins on the Army dance card. In fact, the common opponent that matters most, would be fellow service academy Air Force, who rolled over Army 35-7. Again, Navy beat Air Force 16-13.

When we look at the yards per point numbers, it's evident that Army is going to struggle on both sides of the ball. They have an offensive number of 19 on the road, which is horrendous, as well as an equally bad defensive number of 13. Navy on the other hand, has a very good offensive number of 12 on the road with a number of 15 defensively on the road, and 16 overall. Not great, but slightly above average. Again, it's important to note that these numbers for Navy were against a tougher schedule.

In fact, if you use the ypp numbers to get a line here, the road numbers themselves suggest a 9 point difference between the two teams. When you add in the 6 points in favor of Navy for schedule strength, you'd end up with a line of Navy -15. Not a game that would stand out to us as a great wager of course, but this is the Army/Navy game and our goal here is to attempt to handicap a winner for all those going through college football withdrawal this weekend!

Bottom line here is that Army figures to struggle and have difficulty moving the ball here while Navy figures to have a fairly easy time of it. Navy has had the upper hand in this series for many years now. As a matter of fact, if the line was 14 the last 7 times they played, Navy would have covered 6 of those games and would have only missed by 2 points, as a result of winning 26-14 in 2006. We see that trend continuing here. Navy -14 over Army.

 

 

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