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Cincinnati at Oregon State
Game Analysis and Prediction
9/19/09
Is it possible that Brian Kelly and the University of Cincinnati Bearcats are
upset about not making the preseason Top 25? I’d say so based off their 70-3
blowout win over Southeast Missouri State last week. Before that win they
delivered a crushing 45-15 blow to conference foe Rutgers on the road. Many
thought this team would go quietly after losing in the Orange Bowl, but they
have made one thing clear; the #17 Cincinnati Bearcats are here to stay. They
will travel to play the Oregon State Beavers this week for their toughest game
yet. Currently, most
sportsbooks have the game pick em.
The #24 Beavers of Oregon State narrowly escaped a fourth quarter collapse
against UNLV on the road last week. The Beavers were plagued by penalties but
were still able to win thanks to a balanced offensive attack and a stingy
defense that came up with two turnovers. QB Sean Canfield was 25/31 for 198
yards and 2 TDs. Jacquizz Rodgers anchored a powerful running game while picking
up 166 yards and a TD. His longest run of the game was 47 yards. His older
brother is WR James Rodgers, and he caught 10 passes for 60 yards. Kicker Justin
Kahut missed a PAT, but made up for it with a game winning FG from 33 yards out.
The defense was somewhat worrisome for Oregon State. While they picked up two
turnovers, they also allowed two fourth quarter TDs when it appeared the game
was over. The secondary was shaky and it is susceptible to giving up big plays,
and the line can have trouble pressuring opposing QBs. This could kill their
chances to take down the pass happy Bearcats who feature one of the top QB-WR
combos in the country with Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard. The Rodgers brothers are
clearly the strength of this team and they provide most of the punch of the
Beavers powerful offensive attack. Although the Cincinnati defense has been
strong thus far, Oregon State is clearly the best challenge they will have faced
in this young season.
The Cincinnati Bearcats posted their third highest point total in school history
last week. WR Mardy Gilyard found the end zone 4 times and in unique ways. He
returned a punt for a TD, caught a TD pass from two different QBs, and rushed
for a TD out of the Wildcat formation. If the Beavers want to win this game they
will have to do their best to shut down Gilyard. I don’t know if that will be
possible for them, but perhaps they can slow him down. Tony Pike has been near
flawless this year, throwing a combined 591 yards and 6 TDs while earning a
passer rating of 195.51 in the first two games of the year. The defense entered
the year with tons of question marks, but has been very strong so far giving up
just 18 points in two games.
Problems for the Bearcats could arise if the potent Beavers offense gets off to
a good start against their inexperienced defense. Oregon State employs a
balanced attack. They are able to run and pass for big yardage. Cincinnati has
proved they can win on the road, but Oregon State was able to down the USC
Trojans last year so it will help the Beavers if the fans are able to get in the
game early and make the environment as hostile as possible. Cincinnati has
proved to be very resilient, but this will be their toughest game of the year.
Oregon State played at Cinci in 2007. They turned the ball over 7 times and lost
34-3 despite outgaining the Bearcats by almost 100 yards. Hard to gauge teams
early in the season as far as returning starters and the impact of players lost.
Cinci returns just about their entire offense yet lost everyone on the defensive
side of the ball while Oregon State is in pretty much the same boat, returning 7
on offense and 3 on defense.
So a game like this comes down to being able to access the talent of both schools as a whole. The last three years, both of these squads have won their share of games, with Cinci winning 8, 10 and then 11 starting in 2006 to the present. Oregon State won 10, 9 and 9 in that span. Safe to say both of these schools have some talent and can win games. But what we're going to hang our hat on in this one is the fact that Oregon State has beaten USC twice in the past 3 years. That's impressive. If you take a look at the Cincinnati dance card over this same time span, there's really no signature wins of that magnitude. Winning Big East games is a tad different than winning PAC 10 games, not to mention that the Beavers also came within a field goal of Utah last year, another team with a claim to #1, and that was the game immediately following USC.
Throw in a little revenge for 2007 and we'll gladly take Oregon State. With
the line pick to -1 all we're asking is for the Beavers to win a home game.
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