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Cincinnati vs. Rutgers Big East Football Picks and Anaylsis
9/7/09
Big East football isn’t quite SEC football, but don’t discount the
conference. The Big East is very deep this year with 4-5 teams having a chance
to take the cake. The early favorite is likely to be the winner of the Rutgers
Scarlet Knights versus the Cincinnati Bearcats game on Labor Day. Cincinnati
took last year’s game at home in a close game that was dominated by defense. The
final score was 13-10. We can almost undoubtedly expect a higher scoring event
in this game.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off one of their best seasons of all time.
They finished last year with a record of 11-3 and they also had their first BCS
Bowl appearance (Orange Bowl). Most of the offensive unit that put up 25.9 PPG
last year is intact. However, the defense is bringing back just a single
starter. Coach Brian Kelly is using this as an opportunity to change from the
4-3 scheme to the 3-4 scheme. This isn’t as bad as it sounds because many of the
new starters got plenty of playing time in previous years, but it certainly
isn’t a good thing.
The Bearcats offense will rely on QB Tony Pike and WR Mardy Gilyard. They are
arguably the best QB-WR combination in the entire NCAA. Gilyard is also a threat
on special teams. Pike is very solid overall and probably the best QB in the Big
East. He needs to improve on reading secondaries and throwing less INTs. He ran
into a speedy secondary in the Orange Bowl against Virginia Tech and didn’t know
what hit him. The RBs in Cincinnati are tough. Isaiah Pead should be better in
his second year as a Bearcat. He went to the same High School as Heisman winner
Archie Griffin and broke all of his rushing records. John Goebel will remain the
starter for now, but Pead is one to keep your eye on.
Rutgers will probably improve on their 8-5 record from last year. Their biggest
question comes in their ability to replace QB Mike Teel and WR Kenny Britt. Both
were explosive and valuable players for the Scarlet Knights. Domenic Natale is
the likely starter at QB until true freshman Tom Savage is ready for the job.
Natale is nothing special, but he can get the job done. If he struggles early on
against Cincinnati I wouldn’t be surprised to see Coach Schiano put Jabu
Lovelace in. Lovelace is also a senior. The WR’s aren’t the greatest at Rutgers.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are going to shine on defense. This defense is
arguably the best in the Big East. Coach Schiano is handing the reins over to
two co defensive coordinators so it will be interesting to see how some of the
play calls change. Ryan D’Imperio looks ready for his best season yet at LB. He
is a physical player who will cause problems for opposing teams. DE George
Johnson also looks set for his best season yet. Devin McCourty will be tough at
CB. The three year starter had 5 INTs and forced a fumble last year.
I really like the Cincinnati Bearcats to win this game at +5.5, but I have to
give a disclaimer. I’m a student at UC. I don’t think the loss of starters on
defense will hurt them too much, because many of the new starters had lots of
playing time last year. Tony Pike has added 20 lbs to his lanky frame, and he
will get better with each game. He is still relatively inexperienced.
I’m not sold on Rutgers being the best team in the Big East yet, but a win here
would get me on board. I can’t give up points against a very tough Cincinnati
team. The O/U seems too high at 48. Last year’s game only produced 23 points.
While I think this year will be higher, I don’t think it will go over 48. This
game will have big implications because it is a conference matchup, so tune in
on Labor Day and enjoy the action!
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