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FILLY FRIDAY AT THE BREEDERS CUP

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

11/6/09

The Breeders Cup World Championships are horse racing’s equivalent of the Ryder Cup, World Series, Super Bowl, and countless other year end championships. Most of the races will decide the champion horse for that division. There is plenty excitement this year with the entry of Zenyatta in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and the presence of the Europeans after they cleaned house last year. This year will be the second in which the 14 races are split up into two days. “Filly Friday” as it has been affectionately dubbed is full of money making opportunities for the astute gambler. Let’s take a glance at a few of the races!

Breeders Cup Marathon

This is the only open race which will be contested on Friday. The distance has increased from 1 ½ miles to 1 ¾ miles. Some of the top contenders are Nite Light, Man of Iron, Muhannak, and Cloudy’s Knight. Muhannak won the race last year and is coming in with better form this time around. The jockey of the Chester House gelding would be wise to avoid striking the lead too early. Nite Light has plenty of early speed and should set the pace. He has staying power and will offer value at the windows. Cloudy’s Knight is an old warrior and the nine-year-old has regained some of his old form this year. He wouldn’t be a surprise at a good price.

Juvenile Fillies Turf

I really like a long shot in this race called Tapitsfly. The daughter of Tapit looked wonderful working out last week. She has competed strongly on the New York circuit this year, with a win in the PG Johnson and second place finish in the Ms Grillo Stakes. Zilva looks like a good play after finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Alcibaides last out. House of Grace will be a good value play after a win in the Jessamine at Keeneland last out. Trainer Ken McPeek has been red hot with the babies.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Evita Argentina must be considered based on her 6 3-1-0 record and 404 Tomlinson rating at the distance. The deep closer also does well on the California circuit. Informed Decision and Ventura will vie for favoritism. Ventura won the race last year, and hasn’t lost a step since. Informed Decision loves the distance and is a perfect 6 for 6 over synthetic tracks.

Juvenile Fillies

Always a Princess looks like a great bet for legendary trainer Bob Baffert. The daughter of Lerodesanimaux was second in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf last out after setting the pace. Baffert will have her ready to run the race of her life. She Be Wild will have a great shot for Wayne Catalano. She was runner up in the Alcibaides last out. Trainer Wayne Catalano won this race in 2006 with Dreaming of Anna. Beautician should be a good price after a poor trip resulting in a fifth place finish last out. She was second to the phenomenal Hot Dixie Chick earlier this year. Hot Dixie Chick passed on this race because of the synthetic surface.


Filly & Mare Turf

This race features last year’s winner and likely favorite Forever Together. The five-year-old mare has lost her last two races and will be a good bet against opportunity. I’ll look to European shipper Dar Re Mi. The British filly finished fifth behind Sea The Stars in the Arc de Triomphe last out. That race is the most prestigious among all European races. She was entering that race on three consecutive Group 1 victories. She should be one of the best bets of the day. Other contenders include Dynaforce and Pure Clan.

Ladies Classic

If Zenyatta runs in this race then I love it from a betting standpoint. The mare is undefeated but seems to have lost a step recently. She will be heavily favored and several in here have a good chance to make some noise. I really like Music Note. She ran third in this race last year after dominating her three-year-old competition. She looks twice as strong this year at four. Proviso has competed strongly in Europe this year, and looked very strong winning the Spinster last out at Keeneland. Careless Jewel easily won the Alabama Stakes and should be near the front. I’d consider boxing Proviso, Music Note, and Careless Jewel in a trifecta.