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Florida State vs North Carolina Betting Line - Prediction
10/22/09
North Carolina hosts their first ever Thursday Night ESPN home game as they take on Florida State and coach Bobby Bowden. Oddsmakers have installed the Tar Heels as -2.5 favorites with a Total of 47.
Both Florida State and North Carolina had high expectations coming into the year. Florida State’s young talent had a year of experience under their belt, and UNC had slowly been on the improve since Coach Butch Davis took over the football program. Unfortunately for both teams things have not gone according to plan.
One word that sums up this Florida State team this year is inconsistent. They
opened up with a tough loss to Miami in a game they had every opportunity to
win. Even though they lost they showed signs of being a very good football team,
and there was some excitement down in Tallahassee. Then they had to score twice
in the last few minutes against Jacksonville State to avoid what would have been
the most embarrassing loss in school history. Just when their fans started to
lose faith Florida State went on the road and took it to #7 BYU dominating the
Cougars 54-28.
Once again fans started to believe that they are a serious ACC contender, but
they followed up that BYU victory with 3 straight losses to South Florida,
Boston College, and Georgia Tech. It is very difficult to figure this Florida
State team out. They have the talent to be a serious player in the ACC title
race, but they just haven’t been able to get the ball rolling. If they are going
to salvage what’s left of this 2009 season, which very well could be their
legendary coach Bobby Bowden’s last year, they have got to find their rhythm,
and get a victory over North Carolina.
North Carolina has also been a very up and down team. They started the year off
3-0, but then followed that up with losses to Georgia Tech, and Virginia. Butch
Davis has done a great job of turning this program around with recruiting
nationally, but if he wants to continue to be able to get great talent into his
program his UNC team has got to produce on the field.
PRIMETIME MATCHUP
At times FSU QB Christian Ponder can look like a Top 10 QB in the country, and
at other times he can look like he is lost on the field. This Florida State team
goes as Ponder goes, so when he is clicking this Seminole team looks like a
legit Top 25 team, but when he struggles they look like a bottom level ACC team.
He has got to get things going for them to win this ballgame.
Ponder’s statistics have been solid through 6 games this season but his problem
is finding the end zone. In his first 5 games he only had 4 TD passes, and these
were games where he was averaging over 250 yards passing. As the QB it is his
job to guide his team down the field and put the ball in the end zone. He can
throw for 500 yards a game, but if he is unable to put points on the board it
doesn’t matter. You have to score TD’s when you get into the red zone, and not
settle for field goals.
The good news for Seminole fans is that Ponder had a great game against Georgia
Tech. Ponder went 26-36 for 359 yards and 5 TD. That is the kind of production
FSU needs if they are going to turn things around for the rest of the season.
The bad news for Seminole fans is their team is going up against the #1 ranked
defense in the ACC. This Tar Heel defense is giving up just 238 yards per game
and allowing just 14 points per game. If this Tar Heel defense is able to have
the same success it’s had all year against this Florida State offense it will be
a long day for QB Christian Ponder and this Seminole football team.
THE FINAL VERDICT
Florida State is #1 in the ACC in total offense putting up 426 yards per game,
but they are 6th in the ACC in scoring offense putting up 29 points per game.
That tells me exactly what has been the problem with this Florida State offense.
They can put up the yards, but have problems putting the ball in the end zone.
That cannot happen against North Carolina. This Tar Heel defense doesn’t give
you many opportunities to put points on the board, so when you get inside the
red zone you have to score TD’s and not settle for field goals.
If QB Christian Ponder can have the same success he did in his last game
throwing TD’s then this Florida State team will get the victory, but if he
struggles inside the 20 yard line, and settles for FG’s Butch Davis and his Tar
Heels will get their first ACC victory of the year.
Plenty of motivation for the Tar Heels. First ever Thursday Night home game. The chance to knock off a team that they are 1-14 against, and who is down a notch. But unlike Florida State, North Carolina has yet to prove on the field that they can compete with a top program. When they have stepped up in class this year, they have been spanked. Their wins are against cream puffs plus Uconn, which they were damn lucky to win. Florida State on the other hand, has proven it can compete with, and beat, solid teams if they choose to show up.
Hard to recommend FSU in a serious way because you simply never know with this team. If they want this one, they can get it. So, we'll make a slight call here for Florida State +2.5, maybe even +3 by kickoff.
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