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Arkansas At Alabama - Tide Favored Over Hogs
9/26/09
This Alabama Arkansas game is one of the most intriguing games of the weekend. It has the SEC’s #1 offense vs. the SEC’s #1 defense. It’s arguably the best defensive mind in college football against arguably the best offensive mind in college football. Arkansas is putting up an impressive 538 yards per game, and Alabama is allowing an equally impressive 185 yards a game.
The Crimson Tide started the season off with a very impressive 34-24 win over
Virginia Tech then followed that up with two wins over overmatched Florida
International and North Texas. Alabama played with a lot of energy last week in
their 53-7 route of North Texas. They looked solid on both sides of the ball,
and Coach Nick Saban is hoping it will carry over to this Saturday when Arkansas
comes to Tuscaloosa.
Arkansas lost a heartbreaker to Georgia last week where at one point they were
ahead 21-10 and the ball at midfield after an interception. Arkansas defensive
leader Jerry Franklin was then thrown out of the game for two personal foul
flags and it all went downhill from there. Although Arkansas lost that game to
Georgia they showed that they are a much better team than last year when they
went 5-7, and have one of the best offenses in college football.
ARKANSAS KEY TO VICTORY
In Arkansas’ game against Georgia their defense was exposed badly especially the
secondary. The secondary made Joe Cox look like Joe Montana. If Arkansas is
going to have any chance for the upset they will have to improve on the
defensive side of the ball, but in my opinion the #1 key for Arkansas to win
this game is for Arkansas QB Ryan Mallet to be as effective as he was last week
throwing the ball all over, and if Arkansas can get the running game going too.
If there is one weakness in this Alabama defense it is their secondary, and this
defense has yet to play an offense as good as the Hogs. Ryan Mallet threw for
over 400 yards last week and 5 TDs. Arkansas also has 3 very good sophomore wide
receivers in Joe Adams, Jarious Wright, and Greg Childs. Throw in arguably the
best pass catching tight end in the SEC in D.J. Williams and you have an offense
that can put up some points. Arkansas also has a valuable weapon at running back
in Michael Smith. He was there work horse last year, but this year Arkansas has
had a hard time getting the running game going. The best way to keep a defense
honest in the secondary is to have a good running game to set up play action
passes. If Arkansas can be a much more balanced offense this Saturday they will
be in it till the very end.
ALABAMA’S KEY TO VICTORY
Alabama is a smash mouth team offensively and defensively and that’s just the
way Coach Nick Saban likes it. Alabama needs to continue to do what it does
best, and that is run the football, control the clock, and use the running game
to set up the play action pass. That all starts up front with the offensive line
and running backs. Alabama has one of the best one two punches in the SEC at RB
with Sophomore Mark Ingram and True Freshman Trent Richardson. Alabama is #2 in
the SEC in rush offense behind only Florida. I don’t expect Nick Saban to change
anything. Alabama needs to continue to pound the ball. If the running game is
successful then that will allow star WR Julio Jones to get better match ups and
abuse this weak Arkansas secondary. If they are successful doing that Arkansas
will have fewer possessions to score and the less time Ryan Mallet and the
Arkansas offense is on the field the better chance Alabama will have to get the
win.
THE FINAL VERDICT
Certainly this series has seen closer days than last years Bama blowout. But then, last years result was to be expected. Arkansas lost what was arguably one of the best backfields in college football history in Mcfadden and Jones. They went from a running team to a passing team under new coach Bobby Petrino and those changes simply don't happen over night. They aren't there yet and certainly have a ways to go yet, but there's already evidence that things are starting to click. A quick look at the scoreboard so far this year and you may think you're looking at one of Petrino's Louisville squads, which were among the most prolific offensive teams in college football. Anytime a team can score points like that, it makes them a very dangerous underdog. Bama is the better team and gets the win here, but not so sure about the cover. Arkansas +17.5
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