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Football Handicapping

Weather Predictions

Hurricane Season Revs Up

The ability to handicap or forecast the weather is a very important part of being a successful football handicapper. The difference between a football handicapper and a meteorologist is that the meteorologist doesn't need to know a thing about football while the football handicapper needs to know quite a bit about the weather. Particularly early in the football season, August, September and part of October and that's because it's also hurricane season.

Each year during this time, Tropical waves form off the cost of Africa, many forming Tropical Depressions, then Tropical Storms and finally, in many cases, Hurricanes. These storms head west and in many cases have at least some impact on the United States, be it a direct hit or simply the remnants. Your ability to predict where and when those impacts take place is key to your success. Forecast correctly, and you can put money in your pocket.

Perhaps the best Hurricanes or Tropical Storms in terms of their impact on the United States and football games, are the storms that head into the Gulf of Mexico and make land fall anywhere in that area. This is because once these storms make land fall, the system starts to break up but the remnants of the storm always make a right hand turn and sweep across the country bringing rain and gusty winds to a very large area.

Your job as a football and weather handicapper is to predict where those remnants will be on any given day and then check to see if there are any games on the board that will be affected. Simply check the board and circle any games that figure to be in the path and then try and zero in using a variety of weather sources available online.

What you're looking for first, is the totals on these games which will drop if the storm or the remnants are going to be in town close to game time. You may also want to look at the underdogs in those games, particularly if the favorite is a team that relies on the pass heavily. If you're good at this, you'll be able to make bets on these games long before there is any movement on the board because sportsbooks and players are notoriously slow to react to these storms.

What you do with these bets after you make them, is up to you. Middling is perhaps the best option, as bad weather is no guarantee that a game will go under. However, if you were leaning towards the under already, well, then perhaps you'd be best to keep the wager at the nice price. Almost every year one of more of these storms as a direct impact on the lines of NFL or College Football Games.

Last season and Hurricane Ike are an example of the slow reactions of sportsbooks and bettors. Ike made landfall in Galveston at 2am on Saturday Night. Over the course of the next day it's remnants made it's way through Ohio where hurricane force wins struck during the Titans-Bengals game. Final score 24-7 Titans and a winner for under bettors. Later that night the Steelers and Browns were to play in Cleveland. I recall very little movement on the total in that game until 5 minutes before kickoff when the game started moving under. I turned on the TV and to start their broadcast, ESPN showed debris flying across the field. The game saw 60 MPH wind gusts with the Steelers coming out on top 10-6, another winner for under bettors. But what really sticks out is the slow reaction time to this storm.

It's safe to say you could make a nice profit if you did nothing but bet on weather affected games. Remember as well that these storms can also have an indirect impact on teams. Often times teams in the path of a storm are forced to move their practices in order to get out of harms way. Or even at times be forced to play a home game at a stadium nearby, but not their home field. These things obviously have an impact on teams and the outcomes of their games.

This article is being written as Hurricane Bill gains strength in the Atlantic. Models are predicting the storm to make a turn towards the North and head out to see but not before coming very close to the East Coast. These things aren't always easy to predict more than 5 days out. If the storm were to take more of a path to the West, their are two NFL Preseason games that could be affected. The one in Washington DC as well as the Monday Night game in Baltimore. While both look doubtful right now, those are the areas you would want to zoom in on.

This isn't difficult. However, it does take a little extra work in order to be successful. Not unlike anything else in life. So start surfing the net for good weather sites. The National Hurricane Center and Accuweather are both good starting points. So too, are the local TV news stations in areas that may be in the path of a storm. Just about all are online with their forecasts these days.

Enjoy the weather, and Good Luck!!!

 

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