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Week 4 NFL Predictions and Analysis
This weeks NFL week 4 rundown is courtesy of handicapper Joe D'Amico. Joe operates All American Sports in Las Vegas. His plays can be found right here on Bettorsworld as well as on our Free Sports Monitor.
10/4/09
Oakland +9 @ Houston
Houston looked like they were on track for a playoff spot a week ago, then with
about 2:00 left in the game, a fumble on the 2 yard line gave them a 31-24 loss
to Jacksonville. Texan's QB Matt Schaub is solid with 823 YP and 7 TD's. It is
Houston's "D" that gave up 62 points over the last 2 games that makes them
questionable. I don't think that Oakland QB JaMarcus Russell can take advantage
of the situation. Russell can't pass the ball. He has a 41.3% completion rate
with 4 INT's. Oakland took LY's meeting 27-16. Although I can't back the hapless
Raider's, I also can't lay 9 1/2 points with Houston. Stay away from this game.
There are better games on the board.
Tennessee -3 @ Jacksonville
Tennessee was a pre-season favorite by the oddsmakers. Here we are a month later
and the Titan's are 0-3. This is a must win for Kerry Collins and company.
Collins will have all day to pass against a Jacksonville "D that has a mere 3
sacks on the season. QB's Manning, Warner, and Schaub tallied 866 YP and 6 TD's
over the Jag's in Weeks 1-3. The backfield of Johnson and White will run very
effectively off the pass. Jacksonville's QB David Garrard is having trouble
finding the endzone with just 2 TD's in the air. With Garrard having his
difficulties, this will allow the Titan's LB corps to key on RB Jones-Drew. Jax
is 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home while Tennessee is 7-2 ATS their last 9 vs.
teams with a losing record. HC Jeff Fisher gets his first win of then season as
Tennessee gets back on track. Lay the points.
Baltimore +2 1/2 @ New England
New England came up with their best game of the season last week in their 26-10
victory over Atlanta. Their defense contained QB Matt Ryan, and RB Michael
Turner. Their offense stepped up with big efforts from Tom Brady, Fred Taylor,
and Randy Moss. Baltimore's "D" will do what Atlanta's could not...Get pressure
on Brady. On offense the Raven's(3-0 SU and ATS) are averaging 34.3 PPG on the
strength of QB Joe Flacco. Flacco has racked up 839 YP with 6 TD's thus far.
RB's Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have combined for 392 YR and 6 TD's. They will
have a big advantage over a Pat's "D" that is without LB Jerod Mayo. New England
is 0-5 ATS their last 5 home games vs teams with a winning road record.
Baltimore wins outright.
Cincinnati -5 1/2 @ Cleveland
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New York Giant's -8 1/2 @ Kansas City
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Detroit + 10 @ Chicago
Detroit finally got a win over Washington 19-14 last week. RB Kevin Smith had
101 YR while QB Matthew Stafford did not throw any INT's. Chicago pulled off two
late wins the past two weeks over Pitt and Seattle. In both games, the Bears "D"
played well despite being without LB Brian Urlacher. A season ago Kyle Orton and
Rex Grossman combined for over 500 YP and 3 TD's vs. the Lion's. This season
Chicago has a much more consistant QB in Jay Cutler. Does Detroit winning last
week give them momentum and take the pressure off ? The Lion's have covered 4 of
5 against the Bear's and the 'dog in this series is 8-2 ATS their last 10
meetings. I can't justify playing Detroit nor can I lay 10 on Chicago. No
opinion here.
Tampa Bay +7 @ Washington
Neither team is lighting up scoreboards on offense. The Buc's come off a 24-0
thumping at the hands of the Giant's. QB Byron Leftwich was just 4 of 10 with
just 36 YP last week. He is replaced by Josh Johnson. Tampa Bay needs to
establish the run with Carnell Williams and Derrick Ward. It will be tough
against a Redskin's defense that is allowing just 16.3 PPG. Washington has had
their own problems on offense. Thru three games, they have posted a total of 40
points. The UNDER is 8-0 ATS in Washington's last 8 home games and 7-3 ATS in
Tampa Bay's last 10 vs. the NFC. With both squads sporting lackluster offenses,
take the UNDER.
Indianapolis -10 vs. Seattle
Seattle will be starting Seneca Wallace in place of injured QB Matt Hasselbeck.
The Seahawk's will also be without OT Walter Jones. Without Hasselbeck under
Center, the offense will sputter. They must rely on RB Julius Jones. Jones can
have a productive day against a Colt's "D" that is missing DB Bob Sanders and DE
Dwight Freeney. Indy QB Peyton Manning has done well considering his receiving
corps changes from week to week. Manning has passed for 7 TD's on 983 yards and
a 68.7% completion rate. Indianapolis must get a big game from RB Joseph Addai
who faces a Seahawk's front seven that gave up 256 YR last week to San Fransisco.
Either way, as long as Manning is at the helm, Indy covers. Take the Colt's.
New York Jets +7 @ New Orleans
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Buffalo -1 1/2 @ Miami
Between these two teams, they are 1-6. Buffalo gets back RB Marshawn Lynch from
suspension but is decimated by injuries with at least 6 starters out including
CB McKelvin and S Whitner. The Bill's come off of a 27-7 beating to the Saint's.
Miami won and covered both games from a year ago. The Dolphin's have had trouble
passing the ball downfield and have been horrible in the redzone.I don't think
it will get any better with Chad Henne filling in for injured QB Chad
Pennington. I am leaning towards Buffalo, but injuries make this game too tough
to call.
San Fransisco -9 1/2 vs. St. Louis
It looks like the winless Ram's will be going with Kyle Boller to replace QB
Marc Bulger who is doubtful with a shoulder injury. St. Louis' "D" has gotten
better under HC Steve Spagnuolo but is still giving up over 24.3 PPG. They will
also be without LB Vabora due to suspension. Their offense has just 24 points
scored in 12 quarters of play. They have dropped 21 of their last 23 overall.
San Fran has been undefeated at home (4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS) since HC Mike
Singletary proclaimed "I want more wins." The 1-2 punch of QB Shaun Hill and RB
Glen Coffee will be enough to keep St. Louis on their heels all day. The 49er's
are 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 overall and 7-2 ATS their last 9 over the Ram's. Lay
the points with San Fransisco.
Dallas -3 @ Denver
Who would have thought that Denver would be 3-0 at this point due to a "D" that
is yielding just 5.3 PPG. Changing the defense to a 3-4 has worked wonders for
the Bronco's. However this is their first true test of the season. Dallas has
been an up and down team thus far. They looked great vs. Tampa Bay and Carolina
but self-destructed in Week 2 against New York. Tony Romo has been passing the
ball to many different receivers. The difference in this game will be TE Jason
Witten. To me, Witten is the most valuable TE in the league. He will be Dallas'
"go-to" guy over the middle and in the redzone when receiving and a very good
extra blocker to open up the rushing game for Marion Barber who will play. The
Denver defense hasn't faced a team with the weaponry of the Cowboy's. Take
Dallas.
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