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PREAKNESS
LONGSHOTS
The Preakness Stakes is commonly a race where you
can find nice prices. In 2006 we saw Bernardini take the race with
ease, paying $27.80 to win. In 2002 we saw a local horse, Magic
Weisner, finish second to Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem. The
exacta paid a ludicrously high $327. Let’s take a look at some of
the horses who could slip in and make the exotics pay handsomely, or
blow things up and win like Mine That Bird did just two weeks ago.
Conservative - The name
of this colt describes the style of his trainer, Claude “Shugg”
McGaughey. He is one of the best at what he does, and trains almost
exclusively for Phipps Stable, the owners of this colt. Conservative
is impeccably bred, being a son of Unbridled’s Song and out of a
Seeking The Gold mare. His last race was easily his best, as he
rallied to finish second by a length in the Grade 2 Lexington
Stakes. Prior to that, he won 2 races in a row, breaking his maiden
and taking an allowance event. He has just 7 career races, and Shugg
is taking it easy and letting him develop. The colt could be ready
to run another career best in the Preakness.
Mine That Bird- He
certainly won’t be 50-1, but you will get a more than square price
on this runner in the Preakness. You are probably living in a cave
if you haven’t already heard of his shocking 6 ¾ length victory in
the Kentucky Derby on May 2. It was the largest margin of victory
since Assault in the 1940s. He would go on to win the Triple Crown.
That race was the first time Mine That Bird was able to rally from
far back, and that, combined with the off track, did the trick. If
Rachel Alexandra ends up running he will have a new jockey, so keep
that in mind. Handicapping 101 says he won’t be able to reproduce
that 105 BSF performance, but if he does I think he will be paying
at the very least $20 to win.
General Quarters- The Sky
Mesa colt had everyone on his side when he finished 10th in the
Kentucky Derby at odds of 10-1. He is the only horse in the stable
of ex Principal Thomas McCarthy, who claimed the horse for $20,000
in his first race. The colt rushed onto the scene with a win in the
Grade 3 Sam F. Davis, earning a 102 BSF. He then went on to win the
Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes two starts later after running poorly in
the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. I’ve noticed a pattern in his form, and
he runs particularly well after running a poor race. I expect his
odds to be upwards of 10-1, and he has more than enough ability to
win or fill out the exacta.
Take The Points- He
enters the race with one of the least notable pedigrees, but has
some of the best connections around. Trainer Todd Pletcher took the
Belmont Stakes in 2007 with Rags to Riches, and is arguably the best
in the game. He finished 4th by 2 last out in the Grade 1 Santa
Anita Derby, and runners from that race historically run well in the
Preakness. He will be back on traditional dirt, where he scored his
best win in allowance company earning a BSF of 99. He is training
well, and seems to be under the radar. If he is able to win he will
probably be over 25-1. I’d look for him to fill out trifecta and
superfecta tickets.
PLAY IT SAFE - BET AT THE LARGEST SPORTSBOOK
IN THE WORLD!!!
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