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Handicapper Rick J Weighs in With This Weeks NCAA and NFL Best Bets

10/17/09

"It seems like time is flying. Already we are on week 6 in the NFL and week 7 in NCAA FB


Its been a good year so far hitting 56% in the Hilton NFL contest and 64% in the stations contest. I am way ahead of last year at this time and had a chance to cash in the final week of the Hilton contest last year.

My Hilton picks this week in the order I liked them:

Tampa Bay +3.5

Cleveland +14

Bears +3.5

Buffalo +10

Houston +5.5


In the Stations contest I picked Baltimore +3 instead of the Bears. I would of picked Baltimore in the Hilton contest but it was only +2.5


A 5-0 week last week…lets see if the momentum can continue.


My two best plays this weekend are split up between college and pro.


In NCAA Football my best play is Middle Tenn St +4.5


The public is all over Mississippi st. 81 % to only 19 on Midd Tenn



My neural models show

3 -9 5 -5 3.5 Pick



So all but one favor Mid Ten


Situations are 2-1 in favor of Mid Tenn with the top one being:

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) - with an opportunistic defense - forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers 48-17 over the last 10 seasons.


With only 19% of the public on Mid Tenn this is a top pick


In the NFL there is only 1 game that stands out and it matches an 0-5 team at home against a 1-3 team


Tampa Bay +3.5


The public is all over Carolina 78% to 22%


My neural models are:

-1 -2.5 1 3

All showing Tampa Bay as the right side.



The situations are 5-0 in favor of tampa with the top one being:

Play On - Underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by 40+ YPG 75-36 since 1983.


In addition your on the right side of a key number +3.5


An easy pick for Tampa Bay.


Good Luck this weekend



RickJ

Rickjshandicappingpicks.blogspot.com

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