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Hawaii Bowl
SMU vs. Nevada
12/24/09
In terms of location, it doesn't get much better than playing in the Hawaii
Bowl. The Southern Methodist University Mustangs will be taking on the Nevada
Wolfpack in this year's renewal of the game. SMU will be playing in a Bowl game
for the first time since 1984 when they beat Notre Dame.
Following that win they were placed on probation for recruiting violations and
the program had to cancel a season. It has been bleak since then, but the
Mustangs are the most improved team in the NCAA going from 1-11 in 2008 to 7-5
this year. Nevada finished the year 8-4 and has the top rushing offense in the
entire country. They are the first team in NCAA to have 3 1,000+ rushers in the
same year. Their pistol formation is very deadly. This game will be an exciting
one not only to watch but to wager on.
SMU finished the year 7-5, but they have only one true quality win. That came
over Skip Holtz squad at East Carolina. The Mustangs won 28-21 after dropping
their previous two games. SMU also played TCU and Houston but they were soundly
defeated by both teams. It's hard to gauge how good they are by looking at the
teams they beat. They have 6 wins over truly bad teams, but did take down a good
team in the East Carolina Pirates. They finished the year strong winning 4 of 5
games. The lone loss in that stretch was a close game on the road against the
Marshall Thundering Herd.
The running attack for SMU is led by Shawnbrey McNeal. The junior has picked up
1125 yards on the ground and 9 TDs this year. Bo Levi Johnson is the QB for the
Mustangs. He has passed for 1725 yards and 12 TDs this year. His best weapons
are WRs Emmanuel Sanders and Terrance Wilkinson. They have combined for over
2000 yards and 10 TDs this year. Defense will be a huge part of the game for the
Mustangs. If they can’t stop the potent offense of Nevada, they won’t last very
long. Winning or losing this game will come down to one simple question. Can SMU
stop the run? It’s a tough one to answer, but we believe they will struggle.
This year started out very badly for Nevada. They were shut out by Notre Dame
35-0, and then they dropped 2 more games. They were able to get their act
together after that, winning 8 straight games before losing to Boise State. The
best win of the year for the Wolfpack came against Fresno State. They destroyed
the Bulldogs 52-14. The offense is clearly fast paced. Nevada’s defense also
looks solid. Let’s take a look at some of the key players for this team.
The Nevada Wolfpack has played well toward the end of the year. They are
averaging 362 rushing yards per game. 2 of the 3 top rushers won’t be playing,
so it will be on QB Colin Kaepernick to pick up the slack. The junior is a big
guy at 6’ 6”, and he is a dual threat to throw or run the ball. He passed for
1875 and 19 TDs this year. He has gained 1160 yards and 16 TDs on the ground. It
will be up to him to help the Wolfpack off to a quick start. If they are able to
make it a 2-3 score game quickly then this game might be over very quickly. He
has a great weapon in freshman WR Brandon Wimberly. He has reeled in 5 TDs this
year.
Nevada has the more impressive wins. But neither team has played a tough schedule. In fact, if you take a look at strength of schedule, depending on which set of power ratings you use, these teams have played a schedule that is equal in strength. Perhaps favoring Nevada by a couple of points at most. Yet their overall results are very similar. Both teams have offensive yards per point numbers of around 12, which is very good and means they can move the ball. Unfortunately, both teams also have defensive numbers in the same ball park, which means they give up buckets of points.
With that in mind, we have to side with SMU here, because, as we like to say, "the back door is always open". Really, no lead is safe in a game like this. SMU is thrilled to be here and would love to cap of their year with a Bowl game win. This program has come from as far back as a program can come. A win would be fitting. SMU +12.5
Happy Holidays!
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