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USC vs Oregon State Odds and Analysis
Oddsmakers Favor Trojans by 21
10/24/09
This Oregon State Beaver football team has been a thorn in the side of the
USC Trojans for the last several years. In 2 of the last 3 years the Beavers
took down a previously undefeated USC, and cost them a date in the BCS title
game. USC has just not been able to get over the hump and get through their
regular season without a loss. This year they already went down to a Washington
team that went winless last year, but ever since that ballgame this USC team has
played like we have came to expect the USC Trojans to play.
They are 3-0 since that loss with wins over California and Notre Dame. They have
been playing inspired football, and are a very dangerous team. Their BCS Title
dreams might be all but lost, but you can bet Pete Carroll will have his
football team focused the rest of the year for a Pac 10 title and a berth in the
Rose Bowl.
This Oregon State team was one win away from a Pac 10 title last year, but they
lost in the last game of the year to their in state rival. This year things have
not gone quite as well for the Beavers, but they have had a solid season
including wins over Stanford and Arizona State, but also have losses to
Cincinnati and Arizona. They are still in the hunt for a Pac 10 title, and a win
over USC would go a long way towards accomplishing that goal.
PRIMETIME MATCHUP
This USC Trojan football team is a different team when QB Matt Barkley is under
center. Their only loss of the year to Washington was when Barkley was out with
an injury. Last week against Notre Dame Barkley had a career day going 19/29 for
380 yards and 2 TD’s. He will need to be on his A game this week also to get the
win, because this Oregon State defense is great against the run, so if they stop
the run it’s all up to Barkley to lead this Trojan offense down the field.
The Beaver defense is #3 in the Pac 10 allowing just 98 yards a game on the
ground, but the good news for the USC offense and QB Matt Barkley is that they
are ranked #9 in the Pac 10 in pass defense allowing 275 yards per game.
Oregon State is going to do their best to stop RB Joe McKnight and the rushing
attack, and force Barkley to beat them with his arm. If Barkley keeps
progressing like he has game by game the Beavers defense will be in trouble, but
if they can stop the run and get some pressure on Barkley and put him into bad
situations they are more than capable of winning this game.
THE FINAL VERDICT
You can bet Pete Carroll has been preaching to his players about getting even
with this Oregon State team that has ruined their BCS title dreams 2 out of the
last 3 years, and he will have his Trojans fired up for this game. True Freshman
QB Matt Barkley has been progressing game by game, and is really starting to
play great football. As a true freshman he has gone into the Horseshoe and taken
down the Ohio State Buckeyes, and he’s gone into South Bend and knocked off the
Notre Dame Fighting Irish, so there is not much that can rattle this young QB.
Oregon State will try to get after him early and put him into bad situations and
rattle him, but we don’t expect them to be able to do what Ohio State and Notre
Dame was unable to. Barkley will have another big game, and USC will move one
step closer to another Pac 10 title.
Of course the question everyone wants answered is, not will they win, but will they cover. The feeling here is that anything over -21, we'd stay away from. It's simply too many points to get involved with in any serious way. As a matter of fact we'd first look for reasons to take the 3 touchdowns before we'd lay the number. After all, Notre Dame was a last second play away from sending that game into overtime last week. Is Notre Dame 3 touchdowns better than Oregon State? Are they even better than Oregon State? We don't think so. Oregon State +21
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