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AFC Championship - Early Betting Trends

 

1/19/10

It will be a David vs. Goliath-like battle when the Final 2 from the AFC battle for the Lamar Hunt Trophy on Sunday.

The Indianapolis Colts, who are “supposed to be in the AFC title game,” will host the New York Jets, who “weren’t even supposed to make the playoffs” and on top of that, we’ll see the tried, tested and true QB Peyton Manning dueling with the rookie signal-caller Mark Sanchez.

Online sportsbooks opened Indy as a 7.5 point favorite (a couple books opened Indy -7 early but it immediately went to 7.5 across the board), and now has moved to -8. The total is set at 40.5.

The betting action has leveled off after the initial spike of Colt money early. If you’re thinking about betting on the Jets you might as well wait, as this line isn’t going to come down and could continue to rise a little.

Let’s look at some numbers from this matchup.

Indy is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games (remember they didn’t care about the last couple of games on their schedule).

Note that in their most recent eight games vs. teams from the AFC East, the result has been 6 Overs and 2 Unders.

However, bettors who played the Colts haven’t seen much of a payout in Indy’s last 10 games against the Jets, going 3-6-1 ATS.

You don’t have to look too far back to their last meeting.

It was a controversial game a few weeks ago that resulted in a road win for the Jets, as they handed Indianapolis its first loss of the regular season (by a final of 29-15) but many of the Colts starters were on the bench in the second half of the game.

The Jets covered as 4-point road ‘dogs and the Total went Over 41.

In their last nine home games in January, the Colts have been a solid 6-3 ATS.

The Jets have been road warriors in their last 10 away from the Big Apple as they are 7-3 ATS and are currently on a five-game ATS win streak in that situation.

In the green and white’s last eight games overall, they are a red-hot 7-1 ATS, including going 2-0 ATS so far in these NFL playoffs.

In the Jets’ last eight games when listed as underdogs of 8-points or less, they are 7-1 ATS.

Will Peyton Manning go for the second Super Bowl of his career or will Mark Sanchez cap his rookie season with a Super Bowl appearance?

We’ll see this weekend.

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