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Ole Miss vs. Alabama

Betting Line: Alabama -21 o/u 55.5

10/16/10

 

The Alabama bubble finally burst. It happens to the best of them. While last weeks loss to South Carolina may have come as a surprise to many college football fans, it wasn't a surprise for several college football handicappers, including Bettorsworld and our Key Release crew as we released South Carolina as a play last week. It was just the perfect spot for South Carolina. Every so often things come together in college football to create a situation like last week. Now we get to see if Alabama can bounce back.

Last week aside, this is still one of the better teams in the Nation. They still control their own destiny in the SEC and as far as the big picture goes, well, there's still 13 unbeaten teams in the top 25, so they'll need a little help. But let's revisit that in a few weeks as several of the current unbeatens will fall over the next couple of weeks. A couple of the unbeatens are in the SEC, so Alabama can take care of them by winning the conference.  The teams to keep an eye on as far as Alabama's chances go, are Ohio State, Michigan State, Oregon, Boise and TCU.

So, Alabama still very much alive in the big picture. They simply need to take care of business on their end and hope for a little help. No better way to get healthy and back in the minds of the pollsters than to beat up on an inferior team. Not just win, but win by a wide margin, and that's exactly the opportunity the Crimson Tide have before them this week.

Alabama is better than Ole Miss at every position on both sides of the ball. Ole Miss lost to Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. They beat Tulane, but 3 of their 5 games have been shootouts and their only "quality" opponent was a Kentucky team that simply can't stop anyone, not unlike Ole Miss. 

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Alabama can name their score here. Sure, a win is a win. They could go out there, pound the ball, control the game, and likely win a 17-0 type of a game. But heck, 55-10 looks much better on the report card. Saban and his staff know that, as well as every member of the Alabama team and for that matter, all of college football. Sure, coaches never admit to running up the score but they do when they can for the simple fact that it impresses the pollsters.

Bottom line, if Alabama can win this game by a large margin, they will. We think they can. Both teams have good yards per point numbers offensively of around 13, while Alabama has a 22 defensively compared to an 11 for Ole Miss which is among the worst in the nation. Alabama could very well score every time they have the ball. Alabama also +6 in turnover margin while Ole Miss is -3.

4 of the last 5 games between these two teams have been decided by 4 points or less, however last year Alabama won 22-3. We think this years Alabama team compares to last year while Ole Miss lost several key players and is in some trouble. This should present the perfect atmosphere for Alabama go feel good about themselves again. A night game at home before a wound up crowd against an opponent they should easily handle.

Let's call it Alabama 42 Ole Miss 14. Alabama -21

 

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