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An interesting ACC match-up is slated to take place between Boston College
(2-2, 0-4 ATS) and North Carolina State (4-1, 4-1 ATS) in Carter-Finley Stadium,
Raleigh, NC, Saturday, October 9th. The playing surface is natural grass in
Carter-Finley.
Boston College plays on turf at their home stadium. This will be
Boston College's first road game of the season and thus their first game of the
year on natural grass. Game time weather conditions will be clear skies, 76
degrees and no wind is expected in Raleigh.
Boston College features David Shinskie (72 att, 54.2%) and Mike Marscovetra (50
att, 60.0%) sharing the action at the quarterback position. The Eagles QB duo
have had trouble with interceptions this year with 7 between them. Shinskie has
amassed 529 yards resulting in 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Marscovetra had
285 total yards for 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions. Neither QB is any type of
rushing threat, both being in the negative for rushing yards. The Boston College
ground game is heavily dependent on back Montel Harris with 82 attempts for 334
total yards (4.1 avg) and 1 touchdown. The other rushing option is Sterlin
Phifer who has had only 12 carries (5.8 avg). The passing game for the Eagles is
divided mostly amongst Bobby Swigert (12 rec, 16.9 avg, 2 tds), Johnathan
Coleman (9 rec, 20.6 avg), Clyde Lee (13 rec, 10.0 avg, 1 td). Back, Montel
Harris also has 12 receptions for 55 yards. DeLeon Gause handles the majority of
the kick returns boasting a 27 yard long return. Boston College's defense has
given up 20.8 points on average so far this year in all of their home-stands.
The Eagles have a notable rush defense only allowing 2.6 yards per rush thus far
this season. It will be interesting to see if the Eagle rush defense can hold up
on the road.
North Carolina State has Russell Wilson at quarterback taking the snaps for the
Wolfpack. Wilson has completed 106/191 (55.5%) for 1474 yards (7.7 ypa) and 14
touchdowns with 4 interceptions. The ground game for the wolfpack is spread
between Mustafa Greene (63 att, 5.3 avg, 4 tds) and Dean Haynes (58 att, 4.1 avg,
2 tds). Russell Wilson has also rushed 45 times for 118 yards (2.6 avg) and 1
touchdown. The passing game is mainly distributed between Owen Spencer (20 rec,
356 yards), Jarvis Williams (17 rec, 312 yards, 2 tds) and George Bryan (13 rec,
147 yards, 2 tds). The Wolfpack heavily relies on TJ Graham for kick returns
with 14 so far on the year and boasting a 50 yard long return and although
Graham has seen only 10 receptions on offense for 138 yards, he has made good
use of them racking up 3 touchdowns. North Carolina State's defense has allowed
an average of 23.2 points so far this year. The Wolfpack rush defense hasn't
performed as well this year allowing 4.5 yards per rush from their opposition.
Betting trends to consider for his match-up include: The Eagles are 8-2 ATS in
their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5-10. However, the Eagles are 0-8 ATS in
their last 8 games overall and the Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference
games. The Wolfpack on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Wolfpack are, however,
1-4 in their last 5 games in October.
BC has beaten NC St 4 out of the last 5 times they have played. The year they
didn't beat them, it was a 2 point NC St win. Granted they had Matt Ryan a
couple of those years, but even without Ryan, we see BC wins or a close game.
It's hard to justify a 10 point line here based on recent history. Then again,
one complex formula we use, that gives us a predicted score, has North Carolina
winning 35-13.
So, you wanna be a sports handicapper? This is a game we'd have to toss
as we have methods we use pointing to both sides here. As an opinion only, we
think the number is too high and we think BC is due to show some improvement.
They have fallen flat against the only two decent teams they played and
struggled against weak opposition. If they don't improve here, with Fla State on
deck, then 2nd year coach Frank Spaziani had better start looking for work. A
lean only..........Boston College +10
