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Brazil vs. North Korea
Betting Prediction and Analysis
After a few days of World Cup action, one thing is very clear. There is a huge difference between the cream of the crop and the lower rated teams, however, unlike, say, college football, that difference is not always reflected on the scoreboard. For example, the USA team was clearly not on the same level as England. Yet, they managed a 1-1 tie, or as one New York newspaper put it, USA wins 1-1! On the other hand, Germany was clearly superior to Australia and, well, it showed on the scoreboard. It was the most one sided game of the tournament so far, a 4-0 win for the Germans.
This is being written on Monday, for Tuesdays games. As of this writing we have had three ties, three 1-0 games, a 2-0 game and a 4-0 game. Only one game has seen more than 2 goals scored. Under bettors are very happy right now, but that may be set to change soon.
The three games for Tuesday are Slovakia vs. New Zealand, Ivory Coast vs. Portugal and Brazil vs. North Korea. We have a 1/2 unit Key Release for Tuesday so let's get right to it (a regular play for us is 1 unit).
Let's start with the Mismatch of the day. Brazil vs. North Korea. We've seen what can happen when there is a large talent gap after watching Germany outplay Australia. Well, this one is an even bigger mismatch, however, in this case, unlike the German/Aussie game, the odds reflect the talent gap. Brazil is a -1000 favorite at Top rated sportsbooks, with North Korea +1900 and the draw +800. This is as close to a "lock" as you'll get. But, we just can't lay 10/1 on anything. That's not how you make money long term betting sports.
You can lay -2.5 goals with Brazil at +120 or you can back North Korea at +2.5 goals and lay -140. There's also the over/under 3 goals, with under being -120 and over +100.
Brazil is the #1 rated team in the world. They haven't lost a World Cup opener since 1934, winning 7 in a row and going 13-0-3 since then. North Korea weighs in rated 78th. Quite a gap eh? North Korea lost their last 6 games, all friendlies, against Venezuela, Mexico, South Africa, Paraguay, Nigeria, and Greece respectively. They scored five goals, and allowed ten in those games. North Korea is a defensive team. It's extremely unlikely we'll see them score in this game against Brazil.
North Korea has never played against a team with the talent of Brazil. We like the Over in this game. We have seen the price on the over as high as over 3 -130. Since we feel strongly that North Korea will likely not score, taking Brazil -2.5 goals at +120 is, essentially, another way to bet the over at a better price. After an early exit for Brazil in 2006, losing to France, expect them to be focused and all business.
The other two games Tuesday are Ivory Coast vs. Portugal and Slovakia vs. New Zealand. We considered a play on Slovakia. New Zealand is likely the worst team in the tournament. They are just happy to be here. But Slovakia isn't exactly a powerhouse. If we were to play the match, we would lay -1 goal with Slovakia at -120 or better. But we'll pass as we think there will be far better opportunities ahead.
The Ivory Coast vs. Portugal game looks to be the most competitive match of the day on Tuesday. It's a huge game in the "group of death". In all likelihood, it will determine who advances along with Brazil in this group. We were leaning towards the draw as the value in this game +220 or better, but the injury to Didier Drogba, the Ivory Coasts best player, has us staying away here. He'll play, but how effective he is remains to be seen.
One play for Tuesday.
Brazil -2.5 +120 over North Korea 1/2 Unit
One play so far for Wednesday Chile -1 -105 1 Unit.