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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts

Betting Line: Colts -7 o/u 45.5

By

John J. Raspanti



The undefeated and very surprising Chiefs invade Indianapolis to take on Payton Manning's offensive juggernaut, the Colts. The upstart Chiefs are led by a strong defense that is only giving up an average of 12.7 points per game. Their rushing defense is ranked 5th while their ability to defend against the pass is a bit more problematical. Oh boy, this could be a big problem, you have to be able to at least pressure and push around Payton Manning to beat the Colts. Offensively Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassal has been spotty all year, only completing 54 percent of his passes. Running the ball the Chiefs have exciting rookie Jamaal Charles averaging 7 yards a carry, and old warhorse Thomas Jones who has gained 217 yards thus far. The wide receivers are led by Tony Moeaki with 12 catches and Dwayne Bowe with 7 but with an average of 17 yards per catch. Linebackers Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali have played well all year. Johnson leads the team in tackles while Hali has 4 sacks.

The Colts will most likely have an extra spring in their step after being upset by the Jaguars 31-28 last weekend. Their defense again let them down allowing the offensively challenged Jags to march up and down the field. For the season their defense is giving up an average of 367 yards per game which ranks 24th in the league. Payton Manning is having another great season statistically, with 11 touchdown passes and only 1 interception. Manning's favorite target is Reggie Wayne with a league leading 33 catches and 2 TDs. Following close behind is Austin Collie with 32 catches and Dallas Clark with 28. Running back Joseph Addai has done fine, gaining 228 yards and scoring a couple of times. The Colt defense as mentioned has been pushed around all season except in game two against the Giants. Jags running back Maurice Jones-Drew ran around and the Colts for 105 yards, while close to being benched quarterback David Garrard completed 17 of 22 passes. Colts Linebacker Gary Brackett is playing well but he needs help. The Chiefs will undoubtedly attempt to establish the run, work the clock and try and keep Payton Manning and his dangerous receivers off the field. 

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The Chiefs certainly aren't getting much respect. Most are pointing to a weak schedule as the reason for the Chiefs being the only remaining undefeated team. But we'd remind everyone that this isn't college football. There's really no such thing as a weak schedule in the NFL. The difference between first and worst in the NFL is razor thin.

Consider also, that the Chiefs beat the Chargers, 49ers and Browns. We don't think many people think of the Chargers as cream puffs. The Chiefs held them to 14 points. The 49ers are not as bad as they look. In fact, keep an eye on San Fran from here forward. The Browns, well, hey, the Browns just knocked off the Bengals.

We'd be very surprised to see a one sided Colts blowout here. The Colts offense will always be feared as long as Manning is behind center, but this is a defense that can be vulnerable at times. With Charlie Weis now calling the shots for the Chiefs offense, expect the Chiefs to capitalize more than a couple of times. We can't pass up a full touchdown here in a game that the Chiefs can win straight up.

We also think there is some value on the under in this game. The public is pushing money through the betting windows with both hands on the over in this one but this is a game where one team, the Chiefs, have given up 14, 14 and 10 points, while the Colts held two opponents to 14 and 13 points.

Two recommendations here

1) Chiefs +7

2) Under 45.5

 

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