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Florida State vs. NC State
Betting Line: FSU -4 o/u 56.5
10/28/10
The Perfect Storm isn't quite so perfect any longer. After a devastating OT
loss to East Carolina, and an earlier loss to Virginia Tech the North Carolina
Wolfpack stands at 5-2. They now must take the field against ACC heavyweight
Florida State. The Seminoles have only slipped up once this year, when they were
trounced by Oklahoma on the road. Standing at 6-1, they have their eyes set on
the ACC Title and the BCS berth that comes with it.
This game is likely do or
die for the Wolf Pack. They will host Florida State. Losing would be a huge blow
to their ACC Title hopes. Let's take a look at how these two teams stack up
against each other.
North Carolina hosts Florida State Thursday Night in a game that will have huge
implications for the ACC. Florida State opened as a 3 point favorite and the
early money has come in on the Seminoles pushing the number to -4 at most
sportsbooks.
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Injuries are plaguing the Seminoles. Star QB Christian Ponder is probable after
injuring suffering an injury to his right elbow. He has had some extra time to
heal, and will play, but likely won't be 100%. Chris Revell, Cameron Erving,
Tochmon Stevens, and AJ Ganguzza are also questionable. NC State could be
without Duran Christophe, and Jarvis Byrd, both listed as questionable.
At QB for NC State iscRussell Wilson. The NC State player is an incredible
athlete. So far in 2010 he has 2,124 yards and 18 TD passes. He started 2010
nearly perfect, but has had some bumps in the road since then. He was a very
atrocious 26 of 52 for 1 TD and 3 INTs against East Carolina. If he plays like
that again his team will have no chance. Thankfully for NC State fans, this kid
is a gamer and won't allow himself to have back to back bad games. He completed
26 of 40 passes for 333 yards and 3 TDs against Cincinnati so we know he is
capable of a big game. He thrives off the home field advantage environment.
Expect to hear plenty of howling sound effects if his Perfect Storm offense gets
rolling!
The defense in NC State has been hot and cold. The two largest yardage amounts
they have allowed were the two games they lost. The defensive line has done
excellent work registering a whopping 21 sacks so far this year. They have
showed weaknesses in the secondary allowing Cincinnati to scorch them for 300
yards in the air, and allowing East Carolina to get 376. Virginia Tech ran them
up for 317 yards on the ground.
Tom O'Brien is in his 4th year at NC State and it's safe to say that this is
the biggest game to date for NC State with him at the helm. He's won 5, 6 and 5
games his last three years and this year has his team already at the 5 win mark
with 5 games to go. It generally takes until the 4th or 5th year before a coach
can call a team his own and put his stamp on it and it looks like that's exactly
what Tom O'Brien has done.
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FSU beat NC State the last 3 years, 27-10 and 26-17 in 2007 and 2008 but last year NC State closed the gap and lost a shootout by the score of 45-42. Can they get over the hump and knock the door down this year?
Our numbers have Florida State winning this game by 6. 30-24 to be exact. So the early flow of Florida State money doesn't surprise is. But, we don't play every game strictly by the numbers. There are other factors to consider.
You can never underestimate motivational edges in college football. This is true in all sports, but no other sport can compare to college football as far as the role that emotional and situational factors play in the outcome of games. These factors translate into points on the scoreboard and unlike something like home field advantage, which you can easily figure out and put a number on, these edges are difficult to quantify.
In this game you have a team in NC State that is playing at home, on a Thursday night before a National TV audience. The opponent is a team that has had their number historically, and more importantly, over the last 3 years. The opponent is ranked 16th in the Nation and is THE team to beat in the ACC Atlantic division as they sit on top of the standings at a perfect 4-0 in conference play.
A good football coach, which O'Brien is, will have his kids literally foaming at the mouth as they take the field Thursday night before a wild home crowd that will only increase the adrenaline. We already have the game pegged as close, as we favor FSU by 6, but these motivational edges which are all in favor of NC State will bite into that predicted margin. These added edges can easily translate into a touchdown.
With that in mind, we'll side with the triple revenge minded
NC State Wolf Pack +4 in a game they
could win outright.