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Germany vs. Spain

World Cup Semi Finals

Betting Odds - Analysis

7/6/10

A rematch of the 2008 UEFA Euro Cup is slated to take place between Spain and Germany. A trip to the FIFA World Cup final is at stake Wednesday, July 7th at Durban Stadium in South Africa. Both teams bring a 4-1-0 2010 World Cup tournament record into the match. Spain was victorious in 2008 but there are big differences in both teams now in 2010.

German captain, Michael Ballack has been absent this entire tournament due to injury but this hasn't seemed to affect the bond of the team, in fact they have been thriving. The absence of Ballack has made way for breakthrough offensive performances from young star, Thomas Mueller and veteran player, Miroslav Klose. 20 year old Mueller's 4 goals are second only to Spain's David Villa who has 5. Klose showed in their most recent 4-0 dismantling of Argentina that he is a still a threat at age 32 by netting 2 goals to make 4 total of his own. Although striker David Villa is having an amazing showing for Spain, his '08 championship counterpart, Fernando Torres, is struggling to make a comeback from a recent knee surgery.

In the first elimination game against Portugal, Torres looked to be getting his feet back with several promising plays but in the most recent game against Paraguay, he again, looked out of sync. He was pulled from the game in the 56' and substitute, Fabregas was sent in. For Germany, a very important angle to consider is that German Striker, Mueller is going to be suspended for Wednesday's game due to yellow card infractions. Mueller was given his 2nd yellow card for a handball late in the game against Argentina meaning that he will be ineligible to play Wednesday. Muller's replacement is expected to be 26 year old, Hamburg club player Piotr Trochowski. Germany should certainly have the depth to cover Mueller's absence, according to coach, Joachim Loew.

Both teams have statistical advantages over each other in different categories. Although falling a couple percentage points Spain retains the lead in passing with 80% completed, Germany has a achieved a respectable 73%. Spain also has the advantage in corner kicks with 41 total so far this tournament while Germany is behind by an average of 3 per game with 26 total. However, Spain has not converted any set pieces into goals whereas Germany has 1 set piece goal. Total shots and accuracy have the teams each holding their own edge. Spain has taken 90 total shots with 38.8% of them being on target, Germany a bit more efficient with 79 shots at a 41.7% accuracy. Discipline wise, Spain has been the stronger team with only 3 yellow cards to Germany's debilitating 8, which includes the 2 that caused Mueller to be suspended. The biggest edge for either team has to be the 13 to 6 total goals scored in favor of Germany. David Villa has accounted for 5 out of 6 of Spain's total goals while Germany has multiple players with multiple goals.

Wagering odd for this tournament have the point spread at 0 with Spain drawing a -130 favorite thus putting Germany at even money. In 3-way pools Germany brings +170 for a win while the price on Spain is +155, leaving +225 for a draw. Total goals has been set at 2.5 with -150 odds for the under and a +115 payout for the over. 3-way pools, point spread and point total bets are for regulation plus stoppage time only. Overtime and penalty kicks do not count towards wagers (Odds courtesy of Bodog.com).

The strong play here is to bet Germany on the point spread. Spain has looked a little too shaky in all their 1 goal wins to be able to threaten a German team that, although missing a key starter proved that they are serious contenders by beating Argentina. A team that can beat the reigning Olympic champions 4-0 is certainly a team primed to win the World Cup. The combination of Mueller being out, the fact that Spain has seen much more primetime television coverage and that they are the current Euro Cup champs is enough to put them as the slight favorite with the books. Despite these broad spectrum advantages, Germany is the team poised to advance to the finals on July 11th.

Weather conditions are forecasted to be 63 degrees Fahrenheit and cloudy at game time with a somewhat strong 30% chance of rain. The game can be seen Wednesday, July 7th on ESPN at 1:30 pm eastern, 10:30 am pacific time.


 

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