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Kansas State vs. Baylor
Betting Line: Baylor -6 o/u 59
Many college football teams around the country find themselves looking for that all important, magical, 6th win of the season. Why is the 6th win so important? Because to become bowl eligible a team must win at least 6 games. Perhaps no team craves that 6th win more than the Baylor Bears. Baylor has not been to a bowl game since 1994. Baylor coaches and players alike have said the main goal of this team heading into this season was 6 wins and a bowl game. Baylor has been a classic "team on the rise" the last couple of years and find themselves playing the best football they have played in years. Beat Kansas State on Saturday and there will be one heck of a celebration.
What makes this game against Kansas State even more important is the schedule that Baylor has after this week. They face Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas AM and Oklahoma the rest of the way. None of which you can pencil in a win for if you're Baylor. So that makes this weeks game, at home, against Kansas State, all the more important. It's the one remaining game that, on paper, they have a really good shot at winning.
But Baylor isn't the only team looking for win number 6. Kansas State is also 5-1 and looking to get back into a Bowl game for the first time in three years. Kansas State also has a tough road ahead, but they also get Colorado and North Texas, so not the same urgency as their opponent this week.
These two teams look to be very evenly matched. Their seasons have taken
similar paths. Kansas State knocked of UCLA and a few weaker teams and was blown
off the field against Nebraska, while Baylor gave Texas Tech a battle, knocked
off Colorado and a few weaker teams and was blown off the field by TCU.
Coincidentally, both of these teams beat Kansas by a similar margin, 55-7 for
Baylor and 59-7 for Kansas State.
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We very rarely make a selection that goes against our own numbers on a game. There are many ways for a handicapper to get their own numbers on a game. There are formulas that deal with several different stats that produce score predictions and margins between two teams. We use several of these methods in our process each week. All of the methods we use, have Baylor winning this one, but by a nose. Generally in the 2-4 point range, which would suggest a play on the 6 point underdog Kansas State here.
But we are going to go against those numbers and recommend the Baylor side here. We'd point to the Nebraska vs. Kansas State game as the reason why. Baylor had no answer for Nebraska as they piled up 587 yards of offense. They rank 106 out of 120 college football teams against the run and they face a Baylor team that not only can run the ball, but is 9th in the Nation in passing offense.
In a game that we already had Baylor winning by a small margin, the added boost will come from the importance of this game. This was their goal going in. 6 wins and a bowl game. This is their best chance at a win the rest of the way. It's home coming. Baylor has allowed just one TD at home this year while outscoring their opponents 123-16. Baylor pulls away in the 4th quarter here and the celebration starts early. Baylor -6
P.S. We also predict that Baylor will not only win this game, and become bowl bound, but we also feel it is likely that they win 7 or 8 games when all is said and done. Look out Texas!