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MMA Odds: Fedor Emelianenko vs. Fabricio Werdum Betting Preview
by Richard Gardner |
Bodog Sportsbook Manager
There is no question that Strikeforce is well below the UFC on the mixed martial
arts odds pecking order in terms of popularity and betting action. However, one
Strikeforce fighter, Fedor Emelianenko, the world's top-ranked heavyweight, can
match the star power of just about any UFC fighter, and Emelianenko returns to
action on Saturday night against UFC and Pride veteran Fabricio Werdum at an
event co-promoted by Strikeforce and M-1 Global in San Jose, Calif. The card
will be televised by Showtime.
Many consider Emelianenko the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world and maybe
the best ever in MMA. Last year the Russian turned down a contract offer from
the UFC and decided to stick with his own promotion, M-1 Global, and fight on
co-promoted cards with Strikeforce.
Why did he do that? It's all about money as M-1 said this week he's the
highest-paid fighter in all of MMA -- although obviously M-1 can't really know
what UFC guys are making.
This bout was supposed to take place in April and earlier this month in Los
Angeles but contract issues got in the way. Emelianenko is 31-1, a record that
ranks among the best winning percentages in MMA history.
In his Strikeforce debut in November, Fedor won a vicious fight by second-round
technical knockout of then-undefeated Brett Rogers. "The Last Emperor" has
finished each of his past eight bouts via submission or knockout and has 21
first-round finishes overall. He hasn't gone to a decision since beating Mirko
Cro Cop five years ago.
Emelianenko is currently a big -800 favorite on Bodog's MMA betting lines
against Werdum (13-4-1), who is considered somewhat of a journeyman and is the
+500 underdog. The Brazilian is a jiu-jitsu specialist, with seven of his
victories coming via submission and he has only been finished once in his
career. He is on a two-fight winning streak, coming over Mike Kyle and Antonio
Silva.
Werdum holds submission victories over Emelianenko's younger brother, Aleksander,
and reigning Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem. Werdum was just
2-2 in his brief UFC career.
For the most part Strikeforce matches see significantly less betting action at
Bodog's online sportsbook than even a preliminary UFC matchup. But the exception
to this rule is when Emelianenko is fighting as he ranks fifth on our list of
all active fighters in terms of handle in his matches. So we expect to see
action comparable to a UFC main event bout on this one (although not as big of a
handle as next week's Brock Lesnar-Shane Carwin UFC 116 heavyweight fight).
Fedor easily is the most popular fighter among the betting public who is not
currently in the UFC -- that organization has made several attempts to sign
Emelianenko, but negotiations fell through in 2007 and 2009. It will probably
try again as UFC president Dana White continues to express his interest.
We opened Emelianenko at -1100, but heavy betting on Werdum moved the bout to
where it is now. The fight is now seeing two-sided action at this number but the
book is still holding a small decision based on the earlier +600 number on
Werdum, who is fighting as an underdog for the first time since UFC 85 in June
2008 when he beat Brandon Verra with a first-round TKO. That improved Werdum to
2-0 in his career as the betting dog.
Emelianenko opening at -1100 was the highest opening number of his career. It
also made him the biggest betting favorite in the fairly brief history of
Strikeforce. Fedor is 4-0 when he is the betting favorite.
Bodog will have odds up on
the undercard bouts -- Cris Cyborg (considered the world's top female fighter)
vs. Jan Finney, Scott Smith vs. Cung Le and Josh Thomson vs. Pat Healy -- on
Thursday.