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Green Bay Packers vs. New York Jets

Betting Line: Jets -6 o/u 42

By

John J. Raspanti


The Pack (4-3) is coming off an emotional victory over their NFC north rivals the Vikings. Despite numerous injuries and penalties, they find themselves tied with the Bears for first place in their division. For their trouble, they get to travel to New York and face a very feisty and well-rested Jets team. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has completed 63 percent of his passes and thrown for twelve touchdowns. Rodgers also has nine interceptions. The interceptions are troubling especially when facing an athletic Jet secondary. Running back Brandon Jackson is gaining a little over four and half yards a carry. Wide receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver have played well. Driver has been battling a groin injury that has slowed him down a bit. He still leads the team in receptions with twenty eight. Jennings has scored five touchdowns. Losing explosive wide receiver Jermichael Finley for two months was a major blow. The Packer defense is led by hard hitting sack artist Clay Matthews. Linebacker A.J. Hawk has fifty nine tackles while Charles Woodson has forty five plus two forced fumbles. The unit has struggled somewhat against the run and is ranked 18th overall.

The Jets (5-1) come strutting back to the city raring to go. Linebacker David Harris and safety Jin Leonhard are the statistical leaders in tackles. Eric Smith and Jason Taylor both have three sacks. The Jet defense has been more solid then spectacular this year. They've been burned late in games and played inconsistently at times. Offensively quarterback Mark Sanchez has thrown nine touchdown passes with only two interceptions. LaDainian Tomlinson continues to run like he did five years ago. He's gained 490 yards with an average of over five yards a carry. Sanchez likes wide receivers Dustin Keller and Braylon Edwards. Keller has fives touchdowns and Edwards four. The Jets are only averaging 175 yards a game though the air. On the ground its 159 yards a game. The Packers will be focusing on stopping the run. Is this a good strategy? Young quarterback Sanchez has improved quite a bit this year. 

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We see the home team Jets coming out like gangbusters. It will be up to the Packer defense to keep them in check. This could be a tall order. The Pack must strike first. They have to get some momentum and knock the Jets down a peg. The Jets D will be pressuring Rodgers big time trying to force turnovers. They might get a few. It's been a tough year to predict games (see Raiders 59 Broncos 14) but we feel pretty confident that Jets will win this one.

Last year we felt the Jets were big overachievers. They were an 8-8 team that backed into the playoffs and got on a roll. They were a good team, but there were better. This year, it's a different story. At this early stage of the NFL season, it's safe to say the Jets are one of the better teams in the NFL.

This week they face a Packer team that can also claim to be among the best in the NFL this year. Both teams have some very good yards per point numbers on both sides of the ball. But with the Packers coming off of such an emotional game a week ago, and the Jets rested, it looks to be a good spot for the Jets.

The Jets lead the NFL in turnover margin at +10. They are #2 in the NFL in rushing and they are #4 in the NFL defending the run. Those 3 stats are among the most important for a winning football on any level, be it Pop Warner or the NFL. With that in mind, we're going to go ahead and lay the number here with the Jets. At -6, the number is a tad too high for us to get involved in a serious way. At -3, we'd be very interested in the Jets. At -6, it's just a light recommendation. Jets -6