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Patriots vs. Ravens

Betting Line: Patriots -2.5 o/u 45

10/17/10

By

John J. Raspanti

The surging Baltimore Ravens play host to the offensively driven New England Patriots. The Ravens are 4-1 and have been playing some inspired football. They nipped the Steelers in the final seconds a few weeks ago and then hammered the Bronco's last week. The Patriots are 3-1 and recently shipped seven time pro bowl selection Randy Moss to the Vikings, replacing him a few days later with Deion Branch. Quarterback Tom Brady is having a super season, completing close to 70 percent of his passes with 9 touchdown passes. Brady will miss Moss's ability to go deep and against the hard charging Ravens, Moss's absence could have a huge impact. Deion Branch is a capable receiver having caught over 400 passes in his career, but at 5'9 compared to Moss's 6'4 the margin for error is much smaller. Brady still has Wes Welker and Aaron Hernadez to throw too. Running back Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis has gained 215 yards on the ground but don't expect him to gain much on the Ravens.

The road warrior Ravens charge into New England with many football experts calling them the best team in the NFL. Offensively the Ravens are doing just enough to get it done. Quarterback Joe Flacco quieted some critics with his coolness under fire against the Steelers. His stats are average at best, 5 touchdown passes and 6 interceptions. But the Ravens believe in their young quarterback. Running back Ray Rice has been consistently good all season gaining 363 yards. Flacco's main man is wide receiver Anquan Boldin who has snatched 28 balls and scored three times. The Ravens defense is their money. The D is ranked 3rd in the league and 2nd against the pass. Linebacker Ray Lewis is having his usual all pro season and leads the team with 36 tackles and a sack. Hard hitting safety Dawan Landry has 30 tackles along with active defensive tackle Haloti Ngata.

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The Patriots yards per point number offensively is a fantastic 10.5 and their defensive number is improving, now at 16. The Ravens yards per point number offensively is close to 18, which is poor. Their defensive numbers are good, as would be expected, at 18. The Pats are +4 in turnover margin while the Ravens are -6.

The Patriots will also have some added incentive. We all remember last season when the Ravens rolled into New England for a playoff game and ended the Pats season by humiliating them in front of the home crowd.

The difference in this game is the Patriots ability to put point on the board and the Ravens inability to do the same. The play here is on the Pats laying the small number at home. Patriots -2.5

BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing New England
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
Baltimore is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England

NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
New England is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
New England is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore