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SMU vs. Texas Tech
Pointspread: Texas Tech -14
SMU opens up their season on the road at Texas Tech this year and it looks like bettors, both big and small, think SMU is in for a long day. 71% of the wagering action on this game is on the Red Raiders. The one sides action has pushed the betting line from an opener of Texas Tech -11.5 all the way up to -14 and even -15 at one shop.
We like the direction this SMU team is headed under June Jones. Heck, we like June Jones. A heck of a football coach. By all accounts, he had a fantastic recruiting class, his best yet as he enters his 3rd year at the helm. After a 1-11 season in 2008, SMU found themselves with 8 wins and a huge bowl game win in 2009. No surprise, SMU got it done with the offense. Anyone remember June Jones' Hawaii teams?
Texas Tech brings in Tommy Tuberville to replace the man who turned Texas Tech into an offensive juggernaut, Mike Leach. We all remember the fiasco a year ago with Adam James and the accusations against Leach, which seemed to divide the team. It was a 9 win season for Tech but losses to Oklahoma State, Houston and Texas AM, and barely getting by Baylor, lead us to believe that perhaps laying 14 points here is a tad too many.
As the saying goes, the door is certainly open for SMU here. The back door that is. Laying 14 points or more to a team like SMU, that you know is going to score some points, is very dangerous. Especially when you take into consideration the changes that take place on a team when a new coach takes over.
No question there is still a talent gap between SMU and Texas Tech. Tech has the better talent, and likely always will. You might also say SMU overachieved last year. Heck, when a team goes from 1 win, to 8 in one college football season, there's room for error. We're likely to see SMU take a small step back before continuing the rise. a .500 season wouldn't surprise us. But the fact remains, SMU and June Jones will be very dangerous anytime they are installed as sizeable underdogs.
Texas Tech may be a little vulnerable here. No strong play but we'll lean towards the back door cover here and take SMU +14. Just a small lean.
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