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Syracuse vs. South Florida

Betting Line: SFLA -7.5 o/u 44

10/9/10

 

A Big East battle will take place between the Syracuse Orange (3-1, 3-1 ATS) and the South Florida Bulls (3-1, 2-2 ATS), Saturday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. Syracuse will be playing on a natural grass surface for the first time this year. Both teams have averaged 32 points on offense this season and have each given up about 16 points on defense (S. Fla. 16.8, Syracuse 16.2). Tentative game-time weather conditions call for 85 degrees and partly cloudy with 45% humidity. A light 5 mph wind will be present.

Syracuse has Ryan Nassib at the quarterback helm with 105 passing attempts for 61 completions (58.1%) totaling 860 yards (8.2 ypa). Nassib has racked up an impressive 9 touchdowns on the year and has only thrown 2 interceptions. The ground game for Syracuse is heavily reliant on back Delone Carter giving him the bulk of the carries with 73 on the year he has been averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has amassed 5 touchdowns. Nassib has also rushed 22 times for 70 yards and 1 touchdown. The Syracuse passing game is also mostly reliant on one individual, Van Chew. Chew has 19 receptions on the year for 343 yards (18.1 avg). Respectively, Alec Lemon has had 13 receptions for 151 yards (11.6 avg). Prince-Tyson Gulley has been a threat on kick returns for the Orange with a long of 47 yards this season. Syracuse's most recent win was a 42-7 blowout when hosting Colgate University. Syracuse's only loss has come on the road to the Washington Huskies.

South Florida returns BJ Daniels to the quarterback position, racking up 72 passing attempts on the year with 41 completions (56.9%) Daniels has thrown for 560 yards (7.8 avg) and has 4 touchdowns. However, Daniels has been intercepted 5 times on the year, this has been a major problem for the Bulls offense. The Bulls ground game consists of backs Moise Plancher (50 att) and Demetris Murray (35 att). Plancher has been the go to man in the red zone, amassing 4 touchdowns. While Murray, who has a better avg than Plancher (6.6>4.6) has only run for one touchdown. BJ Daniels has also rushed 39 times (4.8 avg) and has 2 touchdowns. South Florida mainly relies on their ground game but Evan Landi (11 rec) and Dontavia Bogan (9 rec, 2 tds) have been solid receiving targets, each averaging about 18 yards when making a catch. Lindsey Lamar handles most of the kick returns with an average of 30.8 yards on 4 returns. South Florida also won in blow-out fashion, 31-3, their last game when hosting Florida-Atlantic. South Florida's only loss was, 38-14, on the road visiting the Florida Gators.

The Syracuse defense could have trouble with a mobile QB like BJ Daniels. The Bulls know how to pound the football. The Bulls must watch out for Syracuse's QB on defense. He doesn't make many errors.  

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Betting Trends to consider are: Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team with a winning record. Orange are 5-2 ATS in ther last 7 games overall. Orange are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games on grass. Bulls are 6-2 in their last 8 homes games as a home favorite. Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.

South Florida has dominated Syracuse the last 5 times they have played. 4 of those games were blowouts, but Syracuse managed to close the gap a bit last year, only losing by 14. Statistically, the game shapes up as dead even. But we really can't learn much from the schedules each has played. Syracuse stepped up in class once and was beaten by Washington by 20. Their wins are against Akron, Maine and Colgate. Likewise, South Fla stepped up in class once, and was pounded by Florida. Their wins are against Stony Brook, Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic.

There are far better games on the board to wager on than this one. Syracuse is no doubt a team on the rise while South Florida is a far cry from the team that made an appearance in the top 10 a year ago. But until we see Syracuse prove they can go toe to toe with a "good" team, we have to stay away. We have South Florida here by a score of 24-14. So  slight lean towards South Florida -7.5 and the Under 44



 

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