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Troy vs. Middle Tennessee

Tuesday Night Football

10/5/10

 

The Troy Trojans could easily be undefeated. They started the season with a win over Bowling Green, then narrowly lost 41-38 against Oklahoma State. After that they lost to UAB 34-33. In week three they downed Arkansas State 35-28. Both of their losses came on the road. Now they will have to travel once again. This time they will play the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. The Blue Raiders boast the 32nd best rushing game in the FBS. They lost to Minnesota 24-17 to start the year and are currently 2-2 overall. Who is going to come out on top in this Tuesday Night Football matchup? Let's find out!

The Troy Trojans have underperformed from an ATS viewpoint. They are just 1-3 ATS and failed to cover a big spread against Bowling Green. They were 2-5 on the road ATS in 2009. Middle Tennessee was 4-1 ATS at home last year. Troy won the meeting between these two 31-7 in 2009. The Blue Raiders are 1-3 ATS in 2010. Both of these teams want a win in conference play, so expect a good game.

The Trojans of Troy were 9-4 with a 44-41 loss to Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl in 2009. Many of the key cogs from that team are gone, but a solid core remains. Troy is known throughout college football as a scrappy team and they will give everyone their best shot. That includes Middle Tennessee. Getting their first road win after two upsetting losses starts with freshman QB Corey Robinson. The Paducah, KY native leads the 6th best passing offense in the FBS, statistically speaking. He had 404 passing yards 2 TDs in this teams 34-33 loss to UAB. He also played well against Oklahoma State. Road environments aren't hindering the play of this star freshman.

HC Larry Blakeney is in his 19th year, and his defense runs a 4-3 scheme. With lots of young faces on the defense, it has hasn't been working. That is mostly is mostly attributable to lack of personnel. The Trojans are giving up a monstrous 459 total yards per game. They won't win many football games if they can't correct themselves here. Doing so on the road won't be easy. 

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The Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee have their biggest game of the young season this week. They will be eager to try and get a win. That starts with their powerful rushing game. That rushing game is led by senior Phillip Tanner. The Dallas, TX native has racked up 309 yards and 5 TDs on 50 attempts. Junior D.D. Kyles is also an important cog in the offense. He has got 220 yards and 4 TDs on 20 touches this season. They should be licking their chops in anticipation of playing the weak Troy defense. They should have no problem pounding the rock up and down the field all day long.

The Middle Tennessee defense is bad, but not as bad as Troys. They are giving up an average of 352 yards per game. Until their last game when they sacked the QB an amazing 7 times, they were not getting pressure on opposing QBs. Winning this game could be contingent on their ability make problems for the Trojans freshman QB. Nobody likes to get hit, and that goes especially for those who haven't really been hit before. Namely, freshman quarterbacks.

This game will be exciting to watch because it looks like it will be a shootout. Both offenses know how to get points on the board, although they are different. Troy will seek to win with an air attack, while Middle Tennessee wants to keep it on the ground. The winner of this game will be the team that is able to get the most stops from their defense.

This line opened up Mid Tenn -2.5 and has been bet up to -3. We think Mid Tenn will have a little more in the offensive tank than Troy here. Mid Tenn wins a game that likely sees close to 70 points scored. Mid Tenn -3 Predicted score 42-31
 

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